Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network

Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Drew, Mark B.; Lodge, David M.

doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00696.x

Cited by 220 publications

(231 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(46 reference statements)

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“…The amount of exchanged commodities and the intensity of global traffic have therefore been found to be a good predictor to model the global spread of alien species (10)(11)(12). In most cases, predictions of alien species introductions are difficult to assess as model results could not be validated (i.e., quantitatively assessed using observed data) thoroughly due to the paucity of high-quality distributional data of alien species.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Without any model validation, however, it is nearly impossible to assess the quality and the reliability of model predictions, which hampers the application of models for the management of alien species. In recent years, appropriate highquality data have been made accessible by various online databases, but testing model predictions with these data has still been lacking.Model frameworks to predict the likelihood of new invasions have already been developed (10,11,13). However, these were not able to predict the identity of new invaders, but only the likelihood that any new species arrives from a certain source region on Earth.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Model frameworks to predict the likelihood of new invasions have already been developed (10,11,13). However, these were not able to predict the identity of new invaders, but only the likelihood that any new species arrives from a certain source region on Earth.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Seebens

Schwartz

Schupp

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

155

112

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The human-mediated translocation of species poses a distinct threat to nature, human health, and economy. Although existing models calculate the invasion probability of any species, frameworks for species-specific forecasts are still missing. Here, we developed a model approach using global ship movements and environmental conditions to simulate the successive global spread of marine alien species that allows predicting the identity of those species likely to arrive next in a given habitat. In a first step, we simulated the historical steppingstone spreading dynamics of 40 marine alien species and compared predicted and observed alien species ranges. With an accuracy of 77%, the model correctly predicted the presence/absence of an alien species in an ecoregion. Spreading dynamics followed a common pattern with an initial invasion of most suitable habitats worldwide and a subsequent spread into neighboring habitats. In a second step, we used the reported distribution of 97 marine algal species with a known invasion history, and six species causing harmful algal blooms, to determine the ecoregions most likely to be invaded next under climate warming. Cluster analysis revealed that species can be classified according to three characteristic spreading profiles: emerging species, high-risk species, and widespread species. For the North Sea, the model predictions could be confirmed because two of the predicted high-risk species have recently invaded the North Sea. This study highlights that even simple models considering only shipping intensities and habitat matches are able to correctly predict the identity of the next invading marine species. alien species | model predictions | species identity | marine ecoregion | climate change T he number of alien species transported by human assistance has increased rapidly during the last decades with serious consequences for native flora and fauna (1-3). These biological invasions are considered to be one of the major drivers of biodiversity changes (4-6). Once an unwanted alien species has naturalized in the new environment, it is nearly impossible to eradicate the species, and thus the mitigation of further introduction is the most efficient way of combating biological invasions (6, 7). However, a targeted monitoring and an efficient adaptive management requires knowledge about spreading dynamics of the next potential invaders and thus about the distribution of species, their invasiveness, and the likelihood of new introductions. Although all of these topics have been analyzed on their own, the potential to predict the spreading of alien species while combining these components remains to be tested.A large amount of recent introductions can be attributed to the intensified global trade and transport as many species were accidentally or deliberately translocated through the exchange of commodities or the movements of transportation means (8, 9). The amount of exchanged commodities and the intensity of global traffic have therefore been found to be a good predictor to model th...

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Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Seebens

Schwartz

Schupp

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

155

112

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“…Invasion risks associated with shipping have been examined recently for specific recipient systems (6,12) and for a small group of species (13). Studies have identified high-risk invasion routes and invasion hotspots (14,15), but no previous study has tested a modeling approach that predicts both the identity and likelihood of establishment of alien species on a global scale.…”

Section: Ships As Global Dispersers Of Aquatic Organismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking marine alien species by ship movements

Ricciardi

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…However, invasive species do alter marine ecosystems to a large extent and have been shown to introduce diseases, displace native species, alter food-web dynamics, and drive local declines and shifts in habitat type (Briggs, 2010;Pyšek and Richardson, 2010;Crain et al, 2009). Keller et al (2011) coupled environmental niche-and vector-based models to assess "invasion risk" of global ports due to global shipping traffic. They used global databases of ship traffic and port environmental conditions to assess the chance that individual arriving ships will contain organisms capable of surviving in the recipient port.…”

Section: Cause-effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA)

Woods

Veltman

Huijbregts

et al. 2016

Environment International

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Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of landbased industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models.

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Linking environmental conditions and ship movements to estimate invasive species transport across the global shipping network

Cited by 220 publications

References 35 publications

Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

Tracking marine alien species by ship movements

Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA)

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