Linking Climate Change and Forest Ecophysiology to Project Future Trends in Tree Growth: A Review of Forest Models

Lo, Yueh-Hsin; Blanco, Juan A.; Kimmins, J. P.; Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive

doi:10.5772/24914

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…A large number of forest models have been developed over the last 30 years, and in the latest years the hybrid models combinin g field date and process simulatio n are becoming increasingly popular (see Kimmins et al, 2010 ;Lo et al, 2011b , for detailed reviews). Among them, the model FORECAST (Kimmins et al, 1999 ) stands out.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in evergreen broad-leaved (Phoebe bournei) plantation forests using FORECAST ecosystem model

Wang¹,

Wei²,

Liao³

et al. 2013

Forest Ecology and Management

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a b s t r a c tIn the context of global climate change, it is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration. This is especially important for forest managers and policy makers who will have to design and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Previous research has focused on coniferous plantations with rare examination of plantations of evergreen broadleaved species. Phoebe bournei (Hemsley) Yang, as one of the represe ntative species of subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests in Asia, has a unique potential to increase forest carbon sink. In this study, field data were combined wit h the forest ecosystem management model FORECAST to estimate the impacts of different forest management strategies (combinations of planting densities from 1000 to 4000 trees ha À1 , rotation lengths from 20 to 80 years, and different harvesting intensities: stem-only, whole-tree and complete-tree) on carbon sequestration of P. bournei plantations in south-eastern China. Field and previously published data were used to calibrate the model for stand biomass pools accumulation, stand density and mortalit y, light response curves, photosynthetic efficiency, and data on soil nutrient pools, for three different site conditions. The results showed that the most suitable planting density to maximize carbon sequestrat ion in P. bournei plantations is 2000-3000 trees ha À1. Longer rotations (e.g., 80 years) are better than shorter rotations (20 or 30 years) for the long-term maintenance of site productivity, though the recommended rotation length for maximizing carbon sequestration and maintaining forest productivity is 40-60 years. As for har vesting intensity, stem-only harvest ing is the most suitable strategy to manage for carbon sequestration when maintaining long-term site produc tivity, with whole-tree and complete-tree harvesting constituting less optimal options. Our modeling exercise indicates that P. bournei plantations have great potential for carbon sequestrat ion if they are managed under sustainable and ecologically-based strategies. Given that forests are important in the global carbon cycle, it is recommended that afforestation efforts in relevant subtropical regions use appropriate broad-leaved species that can help resolve ecologica l and socio-economic challenges.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in evergreen broad-leaved (Phoebe bournei) plantation forests using FORECAST ecosystem model

Wang¹,

Wei²,

Liao³

et al. 2013

Forest Ecology and Management

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“…Prediction of successional pathways requires an understanding of what it means for one plant species to establish and grow in the shade of another (Weber et al 2014). Basing such predictions only or even mainly on light, as is the case in many process-based forest models (see reviews by Lo et al 2011Lo et al , 2015, and references therein) can lead to erroneous conclusions, if other factors are not accounted for (Kimmins et al 2008, Dybzinski et al 2015). Carbon allocation shifts in response to soil resource availability (Franklin et al 2012, Farrior et al 2013 can have significant effects on interspecific competition and successional pathways (Weber et al 2014).…”

Section: Success Of Both Natural Regeneration and Planting In Partialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and growth as measures of shade tolerance of planted western redcedar, western hemlock and amabilis fir seedlings in hemlock-fir forests of northern Vancouver Island

Weber

Leckie

Kimmins

et al. 2017

Forest Ecology and Management

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We examined two measures of shade tolerance (survival and growth) of planted 1-year-old seedlings of western redcedar (Thuja plicata (Donn ex D. Don)), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla ([Raf.] Sarg.)) and amabilis fir (Abies amabilis ([Dougl. ex Loud] Dougl. ex Forbes)). Seedlings were planted at two different sites (forest interior: 4.5% mean above canopy photosynthetically active radiation [ACPAR], and forest edge: 41.5% mean ACPAR), in a 90year-old, windthrow origin, unmanaged mesic western hemlock-amabilis fir stand. Seedlings were planted in 1997, and re-measured in 1998 and 2001 (after five growing seasons). To assess the effects of deer browsing on redcedar survival and growth, additional seedlings of this species were planted and protected with Vexar© tubes. To examine for nutrient-light interactions, half of these seedlings were fertilized with N-P-K and micronutrients at planting. Western redcedar had high levels of survival after 4 years (98% in edge plots and 93% in interior plots). Redcedar seedlings in edge plots were more vigorous but were browsed more heavily than in the interior plots. At edge sites, the negative effects of the Vexar© tubes may have been lower than their positive effects. Hemlock survival was about 50% in the stand interior but 80% in the edge plots. Amabilis fir in the interior plots had the lowest survival of the three species, with only 40% of initial seedlings surviving over the next four years, but had high survival in edge plots (95%). Height, biomass, and root collar diameter growth were significantly higher in edge plots for fir and hemlock. However, for redcedar, only biomass was significantly higher and no differences were detected for height and diameter. Our results show that shade tolerance cannot be assessed by simple measures of leaf/light relationships alone, but also requires consideration of light, nutrition, growth and browsing.

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“…Such tools could be ecologically-based ecosystem-level forest models that can simulate large time or spatial scales by creating "virtual experiments" depicting the most likely future paths that stand development can follow under future changing conditions. There is a wealth of forest models scientifically designed and tested to simulate the interactions between trees, soils, and the environment and the use of one or another depends mostly on the model user's objectives (see the reviews by Lo et al, 2011;Lo et al, 2015;Blanco et al, 2015, and references cited therein) [17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For models to be adequate decision-support tools, they have to be as simple as possible but as complex as necessary to explain the observed phenomena. Predicting changes in soils, trees, and lesser vegetation at scales meaningful for forest management involves greater complexity than is included in empirical non-process based models [17,18,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Management of Metasequoia glyptostroboides Plantation Forests in Shanghai

Zheng

Blanco

Wei

et al. 2018

Forests

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Urban forestry is increasingly used as a tool for climate change mitigation and for providing environmental services to inhabitants of urban areas. However, tree species used in urban forestry are usually different from the ones used in commercial forestry. As a consequence, available data on growth and yield under alternative management scenarios are usually scarce. As forest models can be used to explore potential forest futures, they are of special interest as decision-support tools in urban forestry. In this research, we used the FORECAST ecosystem-level forest model to define the management prescriptions for Metasequoia glyptostroboides plantations in Shanghai that reach the highest net primary productivity (NPP). In a first step, a battery of different stand densities (from 500 to 4000 stems ha −1 ) was used to identify those with the highest NPP at stand level. Then, different thinning regimes (with intensities ranging from 15% to 40% of trees removed and applied at stand age 5 to 20 years) were simulated on those initial densities with the highest NPP (3000 and 4000 stems ha −1 ). Planting 4000 stems ha −1 and not applying thinning achieved the highest annual NPP (14.39 ± 3.92 Mg ha −1 year −1 ) during the first rotation, but it was not significantly different from the NPP achieved with the same initial density but thinning 40% of trees at year 10. NPP was estimated to decrease with consecutive rotations, and for the second rotation thinning was needed to significantly increase NPP (10.11 ± 2.59 Mg ha −1 year −1 with 4000 stems ha −1 and 25% thinning at year 10) above non-thinning management. For the third rotation, the highest NPP was reached with initial density 3000 stems ha −1 and 25% thinning at year 10. Nitrogen flows were also estimated to decrease with consecutive rotations. These results indicate the potential of managing M. glyptostroboides urban plantations to reach their maximum productivity potential, but also that additional actions would be needed to ensure adequate nutrient levels over consecutive rotations. For a species such as M. glyptostroboides, which was discovered for science less than 70 years ago and for which no plantations over 50 years exist, the ecosystem-level FORECAST model has been shown as a suitable tool to support management decision when growth and yield data are not available.

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Linking Climate Change and Forest Ecophysiology to Project Future Trends in Tree Growth: A Review of Forest Models

Cited by 10 publications

References 64 publications

Evaluation of the effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in evergreen broad-leaved (Phoebe bournei) plantation forests using FORECAST ecosystem model

Evaluation of the effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in evergreen broad-leaved (Phoebe bournei) plantation forests using FORECAST ecosystem model

Survival and growth as measures of shade tolerance of planted western redcedar, western hemlock and amabilis fir seedlings in hemlock-fir forests of northern Vancouver Island

Sustainable Management of Metasequoia glyptostroboides Plantation Forests in Shanghai

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