Link between Antarctic ozone depletion and summer warming over southern Africa

Manatsa, Desmond; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshi; Matarira, C. H.

doi:10.1038/ngeo1968

Cited by 45 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…As shown in model simulations by Shaw et al (2011), the vortex breakup is delayed following the period of ozone depletion, leading to increased downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the SH. A related study by Manatsa et al (2013), which focused on the climate of different parts of Africa before and after the development of the ozone hole, found significant links between the development of the Antarctic ozone hole and the surface air temperatures equatorward of 258S. These links were more pronounced in parts of Africa in which the phase of the SAM affects the Angola low.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several previous studies have linked both interannual and longer decadal variations in the SAM to temperature changes elsewhere in the SH (Thompson and Solomon 2002;Gillett and Thompson 2003;Gillett et al 2006;Manatsa et al 2013) and with cooler conditions in the summer over much of eastern Australia (Hendon et al 2007;Meneghini 2007). More recent modeling and observational studies have shown that ozone depletion can affect both mean and extreme rainfall in the southern subtropics, with enhanced precipitation in Australia and South America in the austral summer (Kang et al 2011;Fyfe et al 2012;Kang et al 2013;Gonzalez et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the ozone hole reached its peak depletion in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the use of the years from 1979 to 1985 to define pre-and post-ozone hole eras had little impact on our results. Our definitions of pre-and post-ozone hole periods are similar to those chosen by Manatsa et al (2013). 2) In each era, we divide years into groups of high and low ozone years.…”

Section: Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Influences of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on Southern Hemispheric Summer Climate Change

et al. 2014

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Over the past three decades, Antarctic surface climate has undergone pronounced changes. Many of these changes have been linked to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here linkages between Antarctic ozone loss, the accompanying circulation changes, and summertime Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude surface temperatures are explored. Long-term surface climate changes associated with ozone-driven changes in the southern annular mode (SAM) at SH midlatitudes in summer are not annular in appearance owing to differences in regional circulation and precipitation impacts. Both station and reanalysis data indicate a trend toward cooler summer temperatures over southeast and south-central Australia and inland areas of the southern tip of Africa. It is also found that since the onset of the ozone hole, there have been significant shifts in the distributions of both the seasonal mean and daily maximum summertime temperatures in the SH midlatitude regions between high and low ozone years. Unusually hot summer extremes are associated with anomalously high ozone in the previous November, including the recent very hot austral summer of 2012/13. If the relationship found in the past three decades continues to hold, the level of late springtime ozone over Antarctica has the potential to be part of a useful predictor set for the following summer's conditions. The results herein suggest that skillful predictions may be feasible for both the mean seasonal temperature and the frequency of extreme hot events in some SH midlatitude regions of Australia, Africa, and South America.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influences of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on Southern Hemispheric Summer Climate Change

et al. 2014

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“…Unlike the other regions considered, southern Africa experiences a strong influence from the midlatitudes and important tropical-extratropical interactions (Harrison 1984(Harrison , 1986, which represents an interesting challenge for climate models (e.g., Niznik et al 2015). Modeling southern African climate is also complicated by remote influences, notably from ENSO (Lindesay 1988;Reason et al 2000), the IOD ( Goddard and Graham 1999;Reason 2002), the southwest Indian Ocean dipole (Washington and Preston 2006; Kay and Washington 2008), the southeast Atlantic (Reason et al 2006;Hansingo and Reason 2009), and Antarctica (Reason and Rouault 2005;Pohl et al 2010;Manatsa et al 2013), as well as the role of local land surface interactions, complex orography, and aerosols (Anderson et al 1996;Mason and Joubert 1997;Tyson and Preston-Whyte 2000;Ramanathan et al 2007).…”

Section: Pan-africanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens

James

Washington

Abiodun

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…In the collision process, warm Agulhas eddies can form, maintaining higher evaporation until they dissipate. There are more complex effects such as the Darwin sea level pressure (Manatsa et al, 2007), the linkage of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the Indian Ocean dipole (Yuan and Li, 2008) or the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (Jury, 1996) and even the Antarctic ozone depletion (Manatsa et al, 2013). Despite that complexity, SST teleconnections remain the preferred choice of predictors in seasonal forecasting (Landman et al, 2005;Landman and Mason, 1999;Funk et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

Seibert

Merz

Apel

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study.1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated).2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Niño and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42 % explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments.3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships.4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.

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Link between Antarctic ozone depletion and summer warming over southern Africa

Cited by 45 publications

References 25 publications

Influences of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on Southern Hemispheric Summer Climate Change

Influences of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on Southern Hemispheric Summer Climate Change

Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens

Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

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