This paper describes a model of partisan fiscal adjustment where policy is made in a bicameral legislature subject to a veto by an independent executive. We show how changes in fiscal policy depend not just on the configuration of parties, but also on veto institutions and on which party or parties was responsible for the previous budget. In our model, the legislative party is unable to shift fiscal policy all the way to its preferred point in one step, but can take advantage of repeated shocks to shift fiscal policy toward its preferred target slowly, probably over several budget cycles. We describe how legislatures can use shocks to shift expenditures and revenues and how this means that over time one can observe persistence of past partisan targets or slower and faster shifts toward new targets. We show also how the amount of change in policy should vary according to how control is configured and how patterns of control interact with institutions.Empirical sections of this paper lay out a specification for estimating a model which is capable of incorporating these features, and report estimates based on taxes and spending in 35 nonsouthern states from . While the results are neither strong nor robust, estimated speeds of adjustment to targets line up as expected, with unified governments showing faster adjustment than divided, and the party targets go in the right direction, with Democrats apparently targeting a larger share of state incomes for the public budget than Republicans. Interestingly, Republicans react much more strongly to budget surpluses by reducing revenues than do Democrats.
5RNKV DTCPEJThe 1995 budget crisis in Congress produced a situation in which no formal budget passed and the government operated under a series of continuing resolutions which carried over the provisions of the previous year's budget. The result, long periods of uncertainty and conflict, focused attention on the political problem of fiscal adjustment in a bicameral system when parties are polarized in terms of having different partisan targets for the scale of taxes and public spending.In this paper we describe a model of partisan fiscal adjustment where policy is made in a bicameral legislature subject to a veto by an independent executive. We focus particularly on "split branch" government, where the legislature and the executive are controlled by different parties. We show how changes in fiscal policy depend not just on the configuration of parties, but also on veto institutions and on which party or parties was responsible for the previous budget. In our model, the legislative party is unable to shift fiscal policy all the way to its preferred point in one step. However, it is able to take advantage of repeated shocks to shift fiscal policy toward its preferences slowly, probably over several budget cycles.Our basic model and a few extensions show that budgets made under divided government can depend on a lot of features that we often think of as procedural details, like the identity of the "veto player," the l...