parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new highresolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic. Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands are some of the last wilderness areas remaining on the planet. These remote areas remain, to a great extent, free from direct anthropogenic impacts such as overpopulation and overexploitation of native ecosystems 1 , although they are not immune to wider global anthropogenic processes such as climate change and long-range pollution 2,3. The high latitude regions of the Antarctic Peninsula, Scotia Arc, and the Magellanic Sub-Antarctic have been amongst the most rapidly warming areas in the world in the second half of the Twentieth Century, showing significant glacier retreat and reduction of snow and ice cover in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems 3. While these strong regional warming trends have currently paused, they are predicted to resume through the remainder of the Twenty-first Century 4. These regions are highly sensitive to environmental change and thus are considered natural laboratories in which to study its effects, at all scales, on their ecosystems and biota 3,5. Today, Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free 6 , this proportion is somewhat higher in the Antarctic Peninsula region (~3%; British Antarctic Survey unpublished data, Lee et al.. 2017). Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are generally small and isolated, populated by small invertebrates, lower plants, and microbes 7. The terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, both chironomid midges (the winged Parochlus steinenii Gerke and the brachypterous Belgica antarctica Jacobs), and two established invasive species with currently restricted ranges, Eretmoptera murphyi (Diptera: Chironomidae) and Trichocera maculipennis (Diptera: Trichoceridae) 8. Climatic gradients have changed over geological time at different spatio-temporal scales in these high latitude southern regions, shaping the composition and distribution of modern landscapes and their biota 3,9. The Eocen...