Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

Abstract

SignificanceThis study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue transmission and that significant impacts could be avoided by constraining global warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Our work could be a starting point for future risk assessments incorporating other important drivers of disease such as urbanization and international traveling.

Microbe‐Mediated Extracellular and Intracellular Mineralization: Environmental, Industrial, and Biotechnological Applications

“…[ 123 ] With the advent of global warming, the global mean temperature has been predicted to increase by another 1.5–2 °C by the end of this century. [ 124 ] The impact of extreme temperature on soil mineralization has also been investigated in vitro. These environment disturbances affect soil mineralization as a result of changes in microbial community activity.…”

Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning

“…The underlying drivers of dengue transmission have been investigated previously and include increased air travel and trade and urban crowding [4,5]. The impacts of weather conditions on dengue occurrence is attracting extensive interest among the research community and policy makers, especially in the context of climate change [6][7][8][9].…”

“…Increasing epidemiological and experimental evidence points to a link between outdoor temperature and dengue incidence [6,[10][11][12][13][14]. The exposure-response association between temperature and dengue incidence is characterised as a bell shape, with the risk of dengue peaking at an optimal temperature, also referred to as the inflection point [11,14].…”

Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

“…Modeling studies have anticipated climate-driven emergence of dengue and chikungunya at higher latitudes [50,51] and higher elevations [52,53], and predicted the potential ongoing global expansion of Zika [10,44]. The majority of research at global scales [10,21,54] and in North America and Europe [55] has suggested that climate change is likely to increase the global burden of dengue and chikungunya, and therefore, that mitigation is likely to benefit global health [22,56]. Aedes-borne virus expansion into regions that lack previous exposure is particularly concerning, given the potential for explosive outbreaks when arboviruses are first introduced into naïve populations, like chikungunya and Zika in the Americas [57].…”