Limited alpine climatic warming and modeled phenology advancement for three alpine species in the Northeast United States

Kimball, Kenneth D.; Davis, Mark H. A.; Weihrauch, Douglas M.; Murray, Georgia; Rancourt, Kenneth

doi:10.3732/ajb.1400214

Cited by 37 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Because some of the marginality hotspots are also recognized refugia, and refugia are typically characterized by climate stability (Mosblech et al, 2011), it is plausible to think that marginality hotspots may also have experienced a stable climate historically (e.g. Kimball, Davis, Weihrauch, Murray, & Rancourt, 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

Abeli

Vamosi

Orsenigo

2018

Journal of Biogeography

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Areas hosting hotspots of low‐latitude marginal populations of cold‐adapted plant species could be key areas for understanding geographical attributes that result in refugia during climatic shifts as well as the conservation of genetic diversity in the face of climate change. Low‐latitude populations of cold‐adapted plants are important because they may harbour the combination of alleles that foster persistence in a warmer climate. Consequently, identification of areas where arctic‐alpine, circumpolar and circumboreal species reach the low‐latitude ends of their distribution will present a unique opportunity to uncover processes that shaped current biogeographical patterns, as well as prepare for future scenarios. Here, we identify 35 main marginal population hotspots (19 and 16 areas in North America and Europe, respectively) of 183 plant taxa. These hotspots represent areas where southern marginal populations of cold‐adapted species co‐occur. The identification of hotspots was based on geographic overlap of southernmost locations of the target species, in a 50 × 50 km grid. With a threshold of two species in a single grid cell or in two contiguous cells, the analysis revealed that hotspots are in most cases located in the southern portion of major mountain chains. However, hotspots also occur in lowland areas at high latitudes (Fennoscandia, Alaska, Hudson Bay) which do not necessarily correspond to known cold‐ or warm‐stage refugia (e.g. Alps). Rockies and Sierra Nevada both in California and Spain, Apennines, and the southern Scandes, maintain their hotspot status even with more stringent cut‐off thresholds (>3 and >5 species per cell group). From a conservation point of view, our analysis reveals that only a small portion of the hotspots are currently included within protected areas. We discuss the importance of marginal population hotspots to future research on climate change and, finally, outline how conservation strategies can capitalize on the knowledge gained from studying climate change effects on cold‐adapted plants.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

Abeli

Vamosi

Orsenigo

2018

Journal of Biogeography

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“…Different species are known to have different flowering time temperature sensitivity, and, thus, variation among species is to be expected (Calinger et al., ; Hart et al., ; Kimball, Davis, Weihrauch, Murray, & Rancourt, ; Ledneva, Miller‐Rushing, Primack, & Imbres, ; Mazer et al., ; Miller‐Rushing & Primack, ; Panchen et al., ; Parmesan, ). However, the magnitude of the variation is surprisingly high in contrast to other studies (Oberbauer et al., ; Wolkovich et al., ) but not unprecedented (Olsson & Ågren, ; Wagner & Simons, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

Panchen

Gorelick

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic.We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km 2 area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions.Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others. K E Y W O R D SArctic, climate change, flowering time, herbarium specimen, Nunavut, seed dispersal time, temperature sensitivity

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“…However, this measure can only be used to predict how responsive a species might be to climate change (Calinger et al, 2013;Davis et al, 2015). The sum of temperature above a threshold temperature on consecutive days influences timing of phenological events, that is the cumulative effect of temperature or growing degree days (Kimball et al, 2014). Most phenology-climate change research typically uses monthly mean temperatures as an approximation for the cumulative effect of temperature on the timing of plant phenological events.…”

Section: Plant Reproductive Phenology In a Changing Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Plants first undergo a period of vernalisation or a chilling period prior to flowering, a mechanism to prevent flowering during a warm period mid-winter (Bernier and Périlleux, 2005). Once the chilling requirements are met, a cumulative period of warm temperatures above a threshold temperature must be met before the plant initiates flowering (Rathcke and Lacey, 1985;Bernier and Périlleux, 2005;Kimball et al, 2014). Each species has different vernalisation, cumulative temperature and threshold temperature requirements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each species has different vernalisation, cumulative temperature and threshold temperature requirements. The threshold temperatures for Arctic and alpine plants appear to range between -7°C and +5°C (Kimball et al, 2014;Barrett et al, 2015). Initiation of flowering can also be triggered by a change in day-light hours (photoperiod) (Bernier and Périlleux, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of climate change on the flowering and fruiting phenology of Arctic plants in Nunavut, Canada

Panchen¹

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Phenology is the timing of nature's seasonal events. Ambient temperature plays a key role in phenology and hence, as the climate warms, phenology will likely change. This thesis studied the impact of Arctic climate change on Arctic plant flowering and fruiting phenology in Nunavut, Canada. To establish a baseline for current plant phenology, the first question asked was 'How does flowering phenology vary across Nunavut?'.Contrary to what might be expected, plants at a more northerly location flower earlier or at the same time and for a shorter duration than conspecifics at a more southerly location.Observations of vast differences in flower abundance in three consecutive and climatically-contrasting years highlighted the challenges of reproductive success with weather extremes associated with contemporary climate change given that Arctic plants require three plus years to complete the sexual reproductive cycle. Finally, three methods, employing long-term phenology monitoring, historical phenological records and an elevation gradient, combined with temperature records, were used to ask the questions: 'How have temperatures in Nunavut changed?', 'How have Nunavut Arctic flowering and fruiting times responded to climate change?' and 'What is the predicted temperaturesensitivity of Arctic plants to rising temperatures of climate change?'. Annual temperatures in Nunavut are rising faster than the global average. However, in contrast to temperate regions where spring temperatures are rising the most, monthly temperatures in late summer, autumn and winter are rising significantly in Nunavut. Later-flowering species have advanced flowering times more than early-flowering species and seed dispersal times have advanced more than flowering times. Flowering time temperaturesensitivity is species specific and Nunavut region specific with mid-summer-floweringiii species more sensitive than early-and late-flowering species and Nunavut Arctic archipelago plants more sensitive than Nunavut mainland conspecifics. That Arctic plants' reproductive phenological events are temperature-sensitive is a good news story suggesting that they will respond to climate change and possibly experience greater reproductive success. Interspecific and inter-regional variation in phenological temperature-sensitivity suggests Arctic plant ecological community structure will alter with climate change but differentially across Nunavut.iv

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Limited alpine climatic warming and modeled phenology advancement for three alpine species in the Northeast United States

Cited by 37 publications

References 79 publications

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The impact of climate change on the flowering and fruiting phenology of Arctic plants in Nunavut, Canada

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