Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat

Dorn, Wolfgang; Dethloff, Klaus; Rinke, Annette

doi:10.5194/tc-6-985-2012

Cited by 22 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Summer sea ice volume is significantly affected by the atmospheric circulation, which in turn is largely influenced by large-scale atmospheric fields. Internal variability is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases (Dorn et al, 2012).…”

Section: Coupled Arctic Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014

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Abstract. Sea ice is the central component and most sensitive indicator of the Arctic climate system. Both the depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970s, have accelerated since the millennium. While the relationship of global warming to sea ice reduction is evident and underpinned statistically, it is the connecting mechanisms that are explored in detail in this review.Sea ice erodes both from the top and the bottom. Atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes interact in nonlinear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system: the amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and, at the same time, accelerates ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms of sea ice decline grew during the 1990s and This article reviews recent progress in understanding the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice perspectives. There is strong evidence that decisive atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness allow for additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large-scale ocean influences on Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. There is little indication of a direct and decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

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Section: Coupled Arctic Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional model studies point at strong internal variability during the summer (Dorn et al, 2012;Holland et al, 2011). Summer sea ice volume is significantly affected by the atmospheric circulation, which in turn is largely influenced by large-scale atmospheric fields.…”

Section: Coupled Arctic Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014

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“…To date, the accurate representation of the vertical structure of the stable AABL above an ice surface still poses a serious challenge for climate modelers [5][6][7]. Model simulations of the observed summer sea-ice retreat depends on the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume in the transition time from winter to spring at the beginning of the melting period [8]. Additionally atmospheric feedbacks between baroclinic cyclones and the shallow Arctic boundary layer during spring and summer conditions need a better description.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spring-Time Boundary Layer in the Central Arctic Observed during PAMARCMiP 2009

et al. 2012

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Abstract:The Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (AABL) in the central Arctic was characterized by dropsonde, lidar, ice thickness and airborne in situ measurements during Above sea ice, a low AABL top, low near-surface temperatures, strong surface-based temperature inversions and an increase of moisture with altitude were observed. AABL properties and particle concentrations were modified by a frontal system, allowing vertical mixing with the free atmosphere. Above areas with many leads, the potential temperature decreased with height in the lowest 50 m and was nearly constant above, up to an altitude of 100-200 m, indicating vertical mixing. The increase of the backscatter coefficient towards the surface was high. Above sea ice with few refrozen leads, the stably stratified boundary layer extended up to 200-300 m altitude. It was characterized by low specific humidity and a smaller increase of the backscatter coefficient towards the surface.

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“…Taking a broader view based on ensemble experiments with a coupled Arctic climate model, Dorn et al (2012) confirm that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea ice retreat depends very much on "the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period". Dorn et al (2008) conclude that the thinning of the sea-ice cover as a background trend is a major reason for its increased response to variations in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Arctic rapid sea ice loss events in regional coupled climate scenario experiments

Döscher¹,

Köenigk²

2013

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in a miniensemble of regional Arctic coupled climate model scenario experiments are analyzed. Mechanisms of sudden ice loss are strongly related to atmospheric circulation conditions and preconditioning by sea ice thinning during the seasons and years before the event. Clustering of events in time suggests a strong control by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Anomalous atmospheric circulation is providing warm air anomalies of up to 5 K and is forcing ice flow, affecting winter ice growth. Even without a seasonal preconditioning during winter, ice drop events can be initiated by anomalous inflow of warm air during summer. It is shown that RILEs can be generated based on atmospheric circulation changes as a major driving force without major competing mechanisms, other than occasional longwave effects during spring and summer. Other anomalous seasonal radiative forcing or short-lived forcers (e.g., soot) play minor roles or no role at all in our model. RILEs initiated by ocean forcing do not occur in the model, although cannot be ruled out due to model limitations. Mechanisms found are qualitatively in line with observations of the 2007 RILE.

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Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat

Cited by 22 publications

References 53 publications

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

The Spring-Time Boundary Layer in the Central Arctic Observed during PAMARCMiP 2009

Arctic rapid sea ice loss events in regional coupled climate scenario experiments

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