Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia

Abstract

Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1%–5%), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained uncertain for CMIP3 whereas CMIP5 GCMs were more inclined to project decreases (−9%). This pattern also applied to most of the Amazon basin, suggesting a higher risk of partial biomass loss for the CMIP5 ensemble. Both ensembles agreed on less rainfall (−19%) during drier months (June–August and September–November), with significant changes in interannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter months (January–March). In the Andes, CMIP3 GCMs tended toward less rainfall (−9%) whereas CMIP5 tended toward more (+20%) rainfall during parts of the wet season. The findings presented here may provide inputs for studies of climate change impact that assess how resilient human and natural systems are under different climate change scenarios.

Climate change and crop diversity: farmers’ perceptions and adaptation on the Bolivian Altiplano

“…Farmers' perceptions of climate change in the eight study communities are in line with empirical data and other studies on farmers' perceptions in the Andean highlands (Perez et al 2010;Thibeault et al 2010;Valdivia et al 2010;McDowell and Hess 2012;Seiler et al 2013;Lennox 2015). The increasing problem of pests and diseases experienced by farmers is associated with rising temperatures and further exacerbated by shifts towards monoculture, pest-susceptible varieties, and abbreviated crop rotation schedules (Parsa 2010;Perez et al 2010;McDowell and Hess 2012;Poveda et al 2012).…”

“…High interannual variability in precipitation is a constant feature of this high altitude plateau, due to periodic climate oscillations (e.g. El Niño) that bring drought in some years and floods in others (Seiler et al 2013). Indigenous farmers have traditionally managed this unpredictable and harsh environment by using drought-and frosttolerant crops, keeping many crop varieties, and planting across multiple plots to disperse risk and take advantage of high spatial heterogeneity, among other strategies (Halloy et al 2005;Perez et al 2010;McDowell and Hess 2012).…”

“…Rising temperatures, glacial retreat, and shifts in the frequency and intensity of precipitation and frost events have been documented in the Andean highlands over the last 30 years (Bradley et al 2006;Vuille et al 2008;Perez et al 2010;Thibeault et al 2010;Valdivia et al 2010). Further increase in temperature and variability are projected that will impact water supplies and crop yields (Bradley et al 2006;Valdivia et al 2010;Seiler et al 2013). Some local crops and varieties may be key assets for adaptation because of their stress tolerance (Sanabria and L'Homme 2013;Ruiz et al 2014); however, others may be vulnerable to the rapidly changing agroecological conditions (Velasquez-Milla et al 2011).…”

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

“…According to their results, frost days are projected to decrease by 2-4 standard deviations in all scenarios by the end of the 21st century when compared to the reference year 2000, while warm nights and heat waves will become more frequent by 3-7 standard deviations (warm nights) and 1-4 standard deviations (heat waves) respectively, by the year 2100. More recently Seiler et al (2013b) analyzed both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models over Bolivia to estimate future temperature changes under a range of emission scenarios. According to their results, temperature in Bolivia will increase anywhere from 2.5°C to 6°C by the end of the century compared to the 1961-90 period, depending on model and emission scenario considered.…”

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

“…The 2010 wildfires resulted in a national state of emergency, which has intensified public debate around wildfires, looking for tangible solutions to prevent potential impacts, particularly given the possibility of more frequent droughts in the future (Ibarnegaray et al 2014). According to regional and global climate model projections, seasonality may become more extreme in the region, with less precipitation during the drier months from July to November (Seiler 2009, Seiler et al 2013. Since the 1990s, Marengo et al (2011) also identified a tendency for a prolonged dry season in southern Amazonia, with a late onset in the wet season.…”