Likelihood of extreme situations at nuclear sites associated with the pacific fleet

Abstract

Resistance to siting nuclear-power facilities in highly populated areas is rooted in ignorance of the real level of risk that they pose. Using conventional estimates of the hazard of various sources, the artificial environment creates a level of risk (fatality) of 3.10-6-1 9 10 -3 , of which natural radiation sources account for less than 1% (3.10-8-1-10 -5 ) and artificial sources for up to 10% (3.10-7). Overall, however, this is no more than 1% of the socially acceptable level of professional risk (5" 10 -4) with prolonged human exposure to all harmful factors [1].The radiation risk in the Russian fleet is also within professional safety levels. However, operation of nuclear and radiational equipment episodically gives rise to incidents accompanied by various degrees of irradiation and human fatality [2].What distinguishes an extreme situation from an incident associated with disruption of regular control of radiational equipment is the scale of the radiational consequences. The boundary between the two is some conventional measure of hazard level [3]. This level corresponds to the following circumstances:9 10 or more victims, including fatalities; 9 material damage above the established standard; 9 radioactive contamination of the environment outside the buffer zone of more than 100 maximum permissible concentrations (maximum permissible levels); 9 radionuclide release ten times greater than the permissible daily level; 9 radionuclide discharge associated with transboundary motion; 9 recording of high levels of radiation less than 30 km from the state boundary. In most cases, such emergencies are the result of human technological activity, as well as random external perturbations of the nuclear equipment such as natural disasters, armed conflict, and sabotage.Natural disasters associated with extreme situations may be divided into the following categories [4]: 9 geophysically hazardous phenomena (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions); 9 geologically hazardous phenomena (landslides, mountain torrents, avalanches, dust storms, sink holes, etc.); 9 hazardous marine phenomena (tsunamis, typhoons, storms, ice aggregations, etc.); 9 hydrologically hazardous phenomena (floods, water-table rise, obstructions, etc.) 9 natural fires (wood, turf, underground mineral, plains, etc.); 9 human infective outbreaks (epidemics, pandemics, etc.); 9 livestock infective outbreaks (epizootics, enzootics, panzootics, etc.) 9 infective outbreaks in plants (epiphytotics, panphytotics, etc.). In a time of social and economic transformations, natural disasters may also include the uncoordinated actions of groups of people who are encountering new technologies for the first time and do not have the knowledge or skills to control the corresponding complex processes (irresponsibility, dilettantism, primitivism, etc.).The ecological consequences of such situations are diverse and may lead to changes in: 9 the state of the land (soil, mineral resources, landscape); 9 the state of the atmosphere (changes in weather and climate); 9 the state of the...