Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resource availability

Capellán‐Pérez, Iñigo; Arto, Iñaki; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; González-Eguino, Mikel; Neumann, Marc B.

doi:10.1039/c6ee01008c

Cited by 96 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 73 publications

(191 reference statements)

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“…The high-coal conclusion can be traced back to scenario modelling through the 1970s, which assumed coal-to-liquids as a backstop liquid energy supply [107]. Other 'resource pessimists' argue that there is greater uncertainty and significantly lower economically-recoverable resources than often assumed in IAM scenarios [108][109][110][111][112][113].…”

Section: Fossil Fuel Resource Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

Palmer¹

2018

Energies

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The following article conducts an analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), specifically in relation to Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). We focus on the key drivers of economic growth, how these are derived and whether IAMs properly reflect the underlying biophysical systems. Since baseline IAM scenarios project a three-to eight-fold increase in gross domestic product (GDP)-per-capita by 2100, but with consumption losses of only between 3-11%, strong mitigation seems compatible with economic growth. However, since long-term productivity and economic growth are uncertain, they are included as exogenous parameters in IAM scenarios. The biophysical economics perspective is that GDP and productivity growth are in fact emergent parameters from the economic-biophysical system. If future energy systems were to possess worse biophysical performance characteristics, we would expect lower productivity and economic growth, and therefore, the price of reaching emission targets may be significantly costlier than projected. Here, we show that IAMs insufficiently describe the energy-economy nexus and propose that those key parameters are integrated as feedbacks with the use of environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EEIOA). Further work is required to build a framework that can supplement and support IAM analysis to improve biophysical rigour.

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Section: Fossil Fuel Resource Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

Palmer¹

2018

Energies

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“…This has in effect triggered several climate change-related studies across different disciplines. Anthropogenic emissions, the principal factor of climate change, have several causes and dimensions, ranging from energy intensity [8], income level [9,10], greenhouse gas intensity [11], population [12,13], urbanization [14], governance [15], trade [16], technology [17], resource availability [18], industrialization [19], infrastructure [20], development [21], lifestyle and behaviour [22]. Dimensions of emissions range from economic incentives [23], non-climate policies [24], information provision [25], direct regulation [26], awareness creation [25], planning [27], research and development [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global effect of urban sprawl, industrialization, trade and economic development on carbon dioxide emissions

Sarkodıe

Owusu

Leirvik

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

120

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Significant progress has been made towards mitigating climate change and its impacts across countries. However, the transboundary effect of CO 2 emissions means that excluding the actions and inactions of certain countries and territories that escalate emissions is alarming. On this note, we examined the heterogeneous contribution of immediate and underlying drivers of emissions across 206 countries and territories for the period spanning 1960-2018. We deployed a dynamic panel estimation technique that accounts for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous parameters across countries, and dynamic correlated effects-a constraint for socio-economic, consumption-and pollution-based models. A global accounting of economic policy and debt, population structure, density and urbanization, and environmental-related aggregate indicators in a carbon emission function is presented. The empirical results demonstrate that the overarching effect of the instantaneous increase in economic development, population dynamics and energy utilization stimulate global emissions at national, urban and household levels across countries and territories. Industrialization and trade were found to escalate global pollution levels due to the impact of carbonized and energy-intensive economic structure in many developing and developed economies. Urbanization, urban income growth, and urban energy consumption are intertwined, hence, the institution of urban-related policy interventions is likely to negate the trio-impact on environmental sustainability. The triple effect (exploitation of natural resources, production and consumption) of economic development spurs environmental pollution, thus, calls for structural change from a carbonized to a decarbonized economy. The complex interaction highlights diversification of the energy mix by the inclusion of clean and renewable energy sources, fossil fuel-switching, and modern technologies like carbon capture and storage to improve energy efficiency and decline emission intensities. OPEN ACCESS RECEIVED

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“…However, before this electrochemical CO 2 conversion technology can become competitive with established production processes of abundant fossil fuels, and to mature synthesis routes of chemical feedstock, a vast number of problems need to be tackled, most of which are related to 1) the low energy efficiency of the CO 2 RR, 2) the poor selectivity of the electrochemical CO 2 conversion with the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), which is the most severe parasitic side reaction of the CO 2 RR, and 3) the long‐term instability of most of the electrocatalysts used for such electrochemical CO 2 conversions…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Size‐Dependent Activity of Palladium Nanoparticles: Efficient Conversion of CO₂ into Formate at Low Overpotentials

2017

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Remarkable size-dependent activity of palladium nanoparticles (PdNPs) towards formate production is evident at very low overpotentials (-0.1 to -0.5 V vs. RHE). Size-selective PdNPs, chemically synthesized at sizes of 3.8-10.7 nm, effected an electrochemical CO reduction reaction in aqueous 0.5 m NaHCO . The faradaic efficiency of formate production (FE ) on 3.8 nm PdNPs exceeded 86 % at E=-0.1 V versus RHE, whereas on 6.5 nm PdNPs an even higher FE of 98 % was observed. However, FE decreased for larger PdNPs. The superior efficiency towards formate production at low overpotentials is rationalized in terms of a changed catalytic pathway through PdH phases. The observed maximum in the formate efficiency for a mean particle size of about 6.5 nm is discussed in terms of counterbalancing the size-dependent effects of a competing CO reduction reaction and a parasitic hydrogen evolution reaction. Production rates of formate are also remarkably high at -0.3 V versus RHE with 539.9 and 452.3 ppm h mg for the 6.5 and 3.8 nm PdNPs, respectively.

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Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resource availability

Abstract: The consideration of the entire range of revised estimates of fossil fuels resources shows that their depletion is likely to occur during the 21st century accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources but not alleviating the need for urgent climate action.

Cited by 96 publications

References 73 publications

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

Global effect of urban sprawl, industrialization, trade and economic development on carbon dioxide emissions

Size‐Dependent Activity of Palladium Nanoparticles: Efficient Conversion of CO₂ into Formate at Low Overpotentials

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Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resource availability

Abstract: The consideration of the entire range of revised estimates of fossil fuels resources shows that their depletion is likely to occur during the 21st century accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources but not alleviating the need for urgent climate action.

Cited by 96 publications

References 73 publications

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling

Global effect of urban sprawl, industrialization, trade and economic development on carbon dioxide emissions

Size‐Dependent Activity of Palladium Nanoparticles: Efficient Conversion of CO2 into Formate at Low Overpotentials

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Product

Resources

About

Size‐Dependent Activity of Palladium Nanoparticles: Efficient Conversion of CO₂ into Formate at Low Overpotentials