Likelihood Neglect Bias and the Mental Simulations Approach: An Illustration using the Old and New Monty Hall Problems
John Wilcox
Abstract:This article introduces a new violation of a law probability, likelihood neglect bias. The bias occurs when one is (i) aware that some evidence is more likely given one hypothesis rather than another, but (ii) that evidence does not cause them to raise their probability for the former hypothesis relative to the latter. The Monty Hall problem illustrates this bias, although the bias is potentially present in other contexts. Unlike previous studies, the present study shows that incorrect responses to the problem… Show more
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