Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Bracco, Paula A.; Gregg, Edward W.; Rolka, Deborah B.; Schmidt, María Inês; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Lotufo, Paulo A; Benseñor, Isabela Judith Martins; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

doi:10.7189/jgh.11.04041

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Lifetime risk of diabetes in our population was higher than U.S [21] Brazilian [22] and Dutch [7] populations, which confirms the report of International Diabetes Federation that MENA region has the highest worldwide diabetes prevalence [1]. Also, lifetime risk of diabetes at both index ages 20 and 40 years was almost equal in both men and women.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population

et al. 2022

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Background Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa region countries. We estimated the lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes among Iranian adults at age 20 and 40 years, and their variation by family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI). MethodsThe data from 8435 diabetes-free participants from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose study were used in this analysis. We estimated the lifetime risk of diabetes stratified by sex, and quantified the impact of family history of diabetes and BMI status on the lifetime risks, singly and jointly. ResultsAt age 20 years, the overall lifetime risk of diabetes was 57.8% (95% CI = 54.0%-61.8%) for men and 61.3% (57.2%-65.4%) for women. Having both family history of diabetes and increased level of BMI, alone, increased the lifetime risk of diabetes in both sexes. Moreover, the simultaneous presence of family history of diabetes and overweigh/ obesity increased the lifetime risk of diabetes in both sexes. So that, at age 20 years the lifetime risk in obese men with positive family history of diabetes was about 54% higher, compared to normal weight men without family history of diabetes; the corresponding value for women was 42%. Also, normal weight men without family history of diabetes lived 24 years longer free of diabetes, compared with obese men with family history of diabetes. In women, the corresponding value was 20 years.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population

et al. 2022

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“…For example, a current estimate suggests that 20 to 30% of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes. Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 50 are expected to live 19 years with the disease and lose 5.2 years of life expectancy; women diagnosed at the same age are expected to live 24 years with diabetes and lose 2.1 years of life expectancy 17 . The health care expenditure with diabetes has increasingly become significant; estimates indicate it costs 0.5% of the Brazilian gross domestic product 18 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of diabetes in Brazil: prevalence data from the 2013 and 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey

et al. 2022

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The prevalence of diabetes has been growing worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazil in 2019, to describe its evolution from 2013, and to evaluate the role of population growth, aging, and other factors in the changes found. The 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey, queried a physician diagnosis of diabetes in a probabilistic multistage cluster sample. The crude prevalence of known diabetes in 2019 was 7.7% (7.4%-8.0%), a 24% relative increase to the prevalence of 2013. Though this increase was greater in men (30%) than women (20%), 2019 prevalence remained higher in women (8.4%) than in men (6.9%). Age-adjusted prevalence was uniformly lower in the North region, and uniformly higher in the Southeast and Central-West regions. In 2019, 12.3 million cases of diabetes were found, a 36.4% increase from the 9.0 million in 2013. Drivers of this rise include increase in size (9.9%) and aging (1.8%) of the Brazilian population, and to all other factors, including increased case-detection and incidence, as well as decreased diabetes mortality (24.7%). Main correlates of greater prevalence - adjusted by the Poisson regression with robust variance - were older age (PR = 27.2, 95%CI: 1.2-42.9 for ≥ 65 years vs. 18-24 years), hypertension (PR = 2.6, 95%CI: 2.4-2.8 vs. normotension), and obesity (PR = 2.3, 95%CI: 2.1-2.5 vs. BMI < 25kg/m2). Those with a complete higher education had a 40% lower prevalence (PR = 0.6; 95%CI: 0.54-0.70 vs. incomplete elementary education). In conclusion, accompanying a worldwide trend, Brazil presents an increasing prevalence of diabetes throughout its regions, posing a huge burden to its population and health systems.

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“…While the increase was minimal in Botswana from 3.6% in 2003 to 3.8% in 2017, it was very distinct in Gabon from 2.9% in 2003 to 7.0% in 2017 [31,32]. In Brazil diabetes prevalence increased from 5.5% in 2006 to 8.9% in 2016 [33]. Though South Africa was the second African country after Ethiopia with the highest number of people with diabetes in 2017, it became the first in 2021 [2,32].…”

Section: Diabetes Prevalence and Its Association With Ses In 2003 And...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Socioeconomic inequalities in diabetes prevalence: the case of South Africa between 2003 and 2016

2023

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Background Diabetes is a growing epidemic worldwide and the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) is frequently acknowledged in the literature. This study aims to compare the effect of SES on diabetes prevalence in South Africa between 2003 and 2016. In addition, vulnerable groups regarding diabetes development in 2016 will be identified. Methods Using DHS data there were 8,006 participants (59.19% women) in 2003 and 10,292 participants (59.42% women) in 2016. Logistic regression and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for diabetes by age, gender, educational level and place of residence. To identify vulnerable groups with high risk of developing diabetes in 2016, the method of p-value based regression tree analysis was applied using “wealth index” and “weight perception” as additional variables. Results There was an increase in diabetes prevalence from 3.86% in 2003 to 4.46% in 2016. Women had more risk of developing diabetes at both time points (27% in 2003 and 24% in 2016 more risk). Increase in age and living in urban areas were associated with more risk of developing diabetes at both time points. There was no specific pattern regarding risk of developing diabetes and educational level in case of women. However, men who completed secondary school or had a higher diploma or above had more risk of developing diabetes in 2016 (OR = 2.24 and 4.67 respectively). Vulnerable groups who have higher risk of developing diabetes in 2016 were participants aged “60 years or older” with a wealth index of “rich” or “richer”, followed by participants from the same age group who were “poor” or “poorer” and participants aged “40–59 years” with a wealth index of “rich” or “richer”. Subsequently were participants from the age group “15–39 years” with a weight perception of “overweight” or “obese”. Conclusion Diabetes prevalence increased in South Africa between 2003 and 2016. Main risk factors were age, gender and living in urban areas. Men with high educational level were more at risk of developing diabetes in 2016. Vulnerable groups in 2016 were participants 40 years and older, particularly with high SES. This was followed by younger participants who were obese or overweight.

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Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Cited by 14 publications

References 37 publications

Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population

Effect of family history of diabetes and obesity status on lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population

Evolution of diabetes in Brazil: prevalence data from the 2013 and 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey

Socioeconomic inequalities in diabetes prevalence: the case of South Africa between 2003 and 2016

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