Lifetime Prediction for A Certain Missile Based on Field Data

Abstract

A statistical procedure of the lifetime prediction for a certain missile is established by the reliability analysis using the field data. First, the reliability at given time point is estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method according to samples undergoing long time storage. Second, the lifetime distribution mode is obtained by fitting the relationship of the reliability and time with linear regression method. Third, parameters of the lifetime distribution are calculated by the Newton-Raphson method. Finally, the lifetime of a certain missile is predicted with the right censored field data. Results show that the field-reliability method could provide a clear reference model to estimate the lifetime of a certain missile through the field data and give some useful feedbacks for future design improvements.