Leveraging Organismal Biology to Forecast the Effects of Climate Change

Buckley, Lauren B.; Cannistra, Anthony; John, Aji

doi:10.1093/icb/icy018

Cited by 30 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…This inaccurate mapping of actual exposure temperatures at the local scale may compromise our ability to project vulnerability assessments to ongoing global climatic predictions (Sunday et al., ). For instance, coarse‐resolution climatic layers may overestimate risk to suffer heat impacts as estimated thermal regimens exceed species upper thermal tolerances (Buckley, Cannistra, & John, ; Storlie et al., ). Our results revealed that the probability to suffer acute heat impacts was similar across elevations and habitats.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance in Andean Pristimantis frogs

Pintanel

Tejedo

Ron

et al. 2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim We analysed elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance diversity in a tropical mountain frog clade to test three macrophysiological predictions: less spatial variation in upper than lower thermal limits (Bretts’ heat‐invariant hypothesis); narrower thermal tolerance ranges in habitats with less variation in temperature (Janzen's climatic variability hypothesis); and higher level of heat impacts at lower elevations. Location Forest and open habitats through a 4,230‐m elevational gradient across the tropical Andes of Ecuador. Method We examined variability in critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) and thermal breadth (TB; CTmax–CTmin) in 21 species of Pristimantis frogs. Additionally, we monitored maximum and minimum temperatures at the local scale (tmax, tmin) and estimated vulnerability to acute thermal stress from heat (CTmax–tmax) and cold (tmin–CTmin), by partitioning thermal diversity into elevational and microclimatic variation. Results Our results were consistent with Brett's hypothesis: elevation promotes more variation in CTmin and tmin than in CTmax and tmax. Frogs inhabiting thermally variable open habitats have higher CTmax and tmax and greater TBs than species restricted to forest habitats, which show less climatic overlap across the elevational gradient (Janzen's hypothesis). Vulnerability to heat stress was higher in open than forest habitats and did not vary with elevation. Main conclusions We suggest a mechanistic explanation of thermal tolerance diversity in elevational gradients by including microclimatic thermal variation. We propose that the unfeasibility to buffer minimum temperatures locally may explain the rapid increase in cold tolerance (lower CTmin) with elevation. In contrast, the relative invariability in heat tolerance (CTmax) with elevation may revolve around the organisms’ habitat selection of open‐ and canopy‐buffered habitats. Secondly, on the basis of microclimatic estimates, lowland and upland species may be equally vulnerable to temperature increase, which is contrary to the pattern inferred from regional interpolated climate estimators.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance in Andean Pristimantis frogs

Pintanel

Tejedo

Ron

et al. 2019

Journal of Biogeography

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“…Translating environmental conditions into organismal performance is one of the significant challenges when interpreting ecological responses to changes in the environment [75]. Temperature is widely studied given the pervasive effect of temperature on virtually all biological systems [76].…”

Section: Synergic Effects Of Water Balance and Body Temperature On Bementioning

confidence: 99%

Ecophysiology of Amphibians: Information for Best Mechanistic Models

et al. 2018

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Several amphibian lineages epitomize the faunal biodiversity crises, with numerous reports of population declines and extinctions worldwide. Predicting how such lineages will cope with environmental changes is an urgent challenge for biologists. A promising framework for this involves mechanistic modeling, which integrates organismal ecophysiological features and ecological models as a means to establish causal and consequential relationships of species with their physical environment. Solid frameworks built for other tetrapods (e.g., lizards) have proved successful in this context, but its extension to amphibians requires care. First, the natural history of amphibians is distinct within tetrapods, for it includes a biphasic life cycle that undergoes major habitat transitions and changes in sensitivity to environmental factors. Second, the accumulated data on amphibian ecophysiology is not nearly as expressive, is heavily biased towards adult lifeforms of few non-tropical lineages, and overlook the importance of hydrothermal relationships. Thus, we argue that critical usage and improvement in the available data is essential for enhancing the power of mechanistic modeling from the physiological ecology of amphibians. We highlight the complexity of ecophysiological variables and the need for understanding the natural history of the group under study and indicate directions deemed crucial to attaining steady progress in this field.

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“…Mechanistic models, in contrast, do not require extrapolation, because they directly integrate species’ functional traits with available microclimates. Thus, mechanistic models theoretically provide a solid basis with which to predict species’ distributions in changing climates (Buckley, Cannistra, & John, ; Buckley et al, ; Kearney & Porter, ; Sears, Raskin, & Angilletta, ). Furthermore, mechanistic models can offer invaluable insights into the proximate constraints that underpin species’ range limits (Kearney & Porter, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range‐limiting processes in a temperate amphibian

Enriquez‐Urzelai

Kearney

Nicieza

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive “proximate” (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those (“proximate”) variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species’ current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change on R. temporaria across Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic (“distal”) layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range‐limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit of R. temporaria tadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species’ genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range‐limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate‐induced range shifts.

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Leveraging Organismal Biology to Forecast the Effects of Climate Change

Cited by 30 publications

References 87 publications

Elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance in Andean Pristimantis frogs

Elevational and microclimatic drivers of thermal tolerance in Andean Pristimantis frogs

Ecophysiology of Amphibians: Information for Best Mechanistic Models

Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range‐limiting processes in a temperate amphibian

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