Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas

Moore, Sean M.; Oidtman, Rachel J.; Soda, Kenji; Siraj, Amir; Reiner, Robert C.; Barker, Christopher M.; Perkins, T. Alex

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008640

Cited by 23 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(94 reference statements)

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“…In both cases, these research outputs are a reflection of particular local health needs of each country. This is also the case of Zika, a disease for which the American continent has contributed more than 78% of the publications worldwide in the last decade, due to the high impact of the recent epidemic in the region since 2015 and the dire consequences for the health of newborns [ 33 , 34 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Publication Trends in Neglected Tropical Diseases of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Bibliometric Analysis

2021

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(1) Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have been overlooked on the global health agenda and in the priorities of national systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2012, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were created to ensure healthy lives and promoting well-being for all. This roadmap set out to accelerate work to overcome the global impact of NTDs. Almost a decade has passed since NTDs were re-launched as a global priority. Investment in research and development, as well as the production of scientific literature on NTDs, is expected to have increased significantly. (2) Methods: A bibliometric analysis of the scientific production of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was carried out in relation to 19 endemic NTDs. These data were compared with the scientific production in malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. The database available from Thomson Reuters Web of Science (WoS) was used. In addition, the average annual growth percentage was calculated for each disease. (3) Results: In the last decade, the NTDs with the highest number of publications in the world were dengue and leishmaniasis. The United States was the most prolific country in the world in 15 out of 19 NTDs analyzed. In the LAC region, Brazil was the largest contributor for 16 of the 19 NTDs analyzed. Arboviral diseases showed the highest average annual growth. The number of publications for malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS was considerably higher than for NTDs. The contribution of most LAC countries, especially those considered to be LMICs, is inadequate and does not reflect the relevance of NTDs for the public health of the population. (4) Conclusion: This is the first bibliometric analysis to assess the trend of scientific documents on endemic NTDs in LAC. Our results could be used by decision makers both to strengthen investment policies in research and development in NTDs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Publication Trends in Neglected Tropical Diseases of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Bibliometric Analysis

2021

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“…Lower values of the dispersion parameter indicate overdispersion, such that variability in cases cannot be explained by a single rate of case incidence, as would be generated by a Poisson distribution with rate ρI d,t . Given the likelihood of variation in the reporting probability over the course of the epidemic [5] and across departments [6], we specified a uniform prior for ϕ , which resulted in a level of overdispersion in reporting equal to at least a geometric distribution ( ϕ = 1) but potentially greater ( ϕ < 1).…”

Section: Supplemental Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Oidtman¹,

Omodei²,

Kraemer³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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When new pathogens emerge, numerous questions arise about their future spread, some of which can be addressed with probabilistic forecasts. The many uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among model structures and assumptions, however. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance of a suite of 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about the role of human mobility in driving transmission, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of times the virus was introduced. All models used the same core transmission model and the same iterative data assimilation algorithm to generate forecasts. By assessing forecast performance through time using logarithmic scoring with ensemble weighting, we found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. In particular, spatially coupled models had higher ensemble weights in the early and late phases of the epidemic, whereas non-spatial models had higher ensemble weights at the peak of the epidemic. We compared forecast performance of the equally-weighted ensemble model to each individual model and identified a trade-off whereby certain individual models outperformed the ensemble model early in the epidemic but the ensemble model outperformed all individual models on average. On balance, our results suggest that suites of models that span uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts in the context of emerging infectious diseases.

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“…Hence, differences in our results over time, across countries, and with respect to level of data aggregation resulted from differences in relative numbers of reported cases of Zika and these other diseases across the different ways of viewing the data that we considered. Even so, all of our estimates substantially underestimate the true number of ZIKV infections that likely occurred given that our methods do not account for unreported infections [ 46 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-circulation and misdiagnosis led to underestimation of the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic in the Americas

2021

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During the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic, dengue and chikungunya–two other viral diseases with the same vector as Zika–were also in circulation. Clinical presentation of these diseases can vary from person to person in terms of symptoms and severity, making it difficult to differentially diagnose them. Under these circumstances, it is possible that numerous cases of Zika could have been misdiagnosed as dengue or chikungunya, or vice versa. Given the importance of surveillance data for informing epidemiological analyses, our aim was to quantify the potential extent of misdiagnosis during this epidemic. Using basic principles of probability and empirical estimates of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, we generated revised estimates of reported cases of Zika that accounted for the accuracy of diagnoses made on the basis of clinical presentation with or without laboratory confirmation. Applying this method to weekly reported case data from 43 countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, we estimated that 944,700 (95% CrI: 884,900–996,400) Zika cases occurred when assuming all confirmed cases were diagnosed using molecular methods versus 608,400 (95% CrI: 442,000–821,800) Zika cases that occurred when assuming all confirmed cases were diagnosed using serological methods. Our results imply that misdiagnosis was more common in countries with proportionally higher reported cases of dengue and chikungunya, such as Brazil. Given that Zika, dengue, and chikungunya appear likely to co-circulate in the Americas and elsewhere for years to come, our methodology has the potential to enhance the interpretation of passive surveillance data for these diseases going forward. Likewise, our methodology could also be used to help resolve transmission dynamics of other co-circulating diseases with similarities in symptomatology and potential for misdiagnosis.

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Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas

Cited by 23 publications

References 58 publications

Publication Trends in Neglected Tropical Diseases of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Bibliometric Analysis

Publication Trends in Neglected Tropical Diseases of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Bibliometric Analysis

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Co-circulation and misdiagnosis led to underestimation of the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic in the Americas

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