Leveraging knowledge bases for future prediction with memory comparison networks

Abstract

Making predictions about what might happen in the future is important for reacting adequately in many situations. For example, observing that "Man kidnaps girl" may have the consequence that "Man kills girl". While this is part of common sense reasoning for humans, it is not obvious how machines can acquire and generalize over such knowledge. In this article, we propose a new type of memory network that can predict the next future event also for observations that are not in the knowledge base. We evaluate our proposed method on two knowledge bases: Reuters KB (events from news articles) and Regneri KB (events from scripts). For both knowledge bases, our proposed method shows similar or better prediction accuracy on unseen events (or scripts) than recently proposed deep neural networks and rankSVM. We also demonstrate that the attention mechanism of our proposed method can be helpful for error analysis and manual expansion of the knowledge base.