Leveraging ICESat, ICESat‐2, and Landsat for Global‐Scale, Multi‐Decadal Reconstruction of Lake Water Levels

Abstract

Lakes provide important water resources and many essential ecosystem services. Some of Earth's largest lakes recently reached record‐low levels, suggesting increasing threats from climate change and anthropogenic activities. Yet, continuous monitoring of lake levels is challenging at a global scale due to the sparse in situ gauging network and the limited spatial or temporal coverage of satellite altimeters. A few pioneering studies used water areas and hypsometric curves to reconstruct water levels but suffered from large uncertainties due to the lack of high‐quality hypsometry data. Here, we propose a novel proxy‐based method to reconstruct multi‐decadal water levels from 1992 to 2018 for both large and small lakes using Landsat images and ICESat (2003–2009) and recently launched ICESat‐2 (2018+) laser altimeters. Using the new method, we evaluate reconstructed levels of 342 lakes worldwide, with sizes ranging from 1 to 81,844 km2. Reconstructed water levels have a median root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 0.66 m, equivalent to 57% of the standard deviation of monthly level variability. Compared with two recently reconstructed water level data sets, the proposed method reduces the median RMSE by 27%–32%. The improvement is attributable to the new method's robust construction of high‐quality hypsometry, with a median R2 value of 0.92. Most reconstructed water level time series have a bi‐monthly or higher frequency. Given that ICESat‐2 and Landsat can observe hundreds of thousands of water bodies, this method can be applied to conduct an improved global inventory of time‐varying lake levels and thus inform water resource management more broadly than existing methods.