Levee reliability analysis using logistic regression models – abilities, limitations and practical considerations

Heyer, Torsten; Stamm, Jürgen

doi:10.1080/17499518.2013.790734

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In addition, those models are frequently applied to economical, and also medical and social sciences. The logit model is also often employed in river engineering, geomorphology, environmental protection, microbiology, wastewater treatment, and in analyses of the operation of components of sewage systems [8,10,11]. In addition to the applications above, the linear discriminant model was also used to assess the condition of stormwater drainage pipe and to analyse landslide occurrence [12,13].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the selected classification models to the analysis of the settling capacity of the activated sludge – case study

Szeląg

Siwicki

2017

E3S Web Conf.

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Abstract. The study presents the development of classification models for sedimentation of activated sludge using the artificial neural networks (ANN), logistic-regression (RL), and linear discrimination model (LDM). The input consisted of indicators of wastewater quantity and quality (biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the inflow to the wastewater treatment plant) and operational characteristic of the bioreactor (pH, temperature of activated sludge, mixed liquor suspended solids, concentration of oxygen in the nitrification chamber, amount of PIX dosing).The prediction quality of the developed models was measured with: sensitivity, specificity, and computed errors. The calculations of the sedimentation were performed for sludge volume index (SVI). The results indicate that successful predictions were obtained using ANN, RL and LDM methods, which is supported by the fit of computations to measurement results. The study shows that for the wastewater treatment plant of concern, sedimentation properties can be obtained using only the loads of organic compounds, mixed liquor suspended solids, temperature, pH of activated sludge, concentration of oxygen in the nitrification chamber and amount of PIX dozing. Other analysed variables appear to be statistically insignificant for the sludge volume index.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the selected classification models to the analysis of the settling capacity of the activated sludge – case study

Szeląg

Siwicki

2017

E3S Web Conf.

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“…4 (Methodology), based on the determined distributions of the theoretical rainfall characteristics describing the operation of a storm overflow, a model for the simulation of a synthetic rainfall series was adopted for further analysis. The simulations carried out for this purpose included the Monte Carlo method with modifications from Iman and Conover (1982). This model provides the possibility of simulating the independent variables based on the determined theoretical distributions.…”

Section: Separation Of the Rain Event And Synthetic Rainfall Simulatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operations: a probabilistic approach

Szeląg

Suligowski

Studziński

et al. 2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. One of the key parameters constituting the basis for the operational assessment of stormwater systems is the annual number of storm overflows. Since uncontrolled overflows are a source of pollution washed away from the surface of the catchment area, which leads to imbalanced receiving waters, there is a need for their prognosis and potential reduction. The paper presents a probabilistic model for simulating the annual number of storm overflows. In this model, an innovative solution is to use the logistic regression method to analyze the impact of rainfall genesis on the functioning of a storm overflow (OV) in the example of a catchment located in the city of Kielce (central Poland). The developed model consists of two independent elements. The first element of the model is a synthetic precipitation generator, in which the simulation of rainfall takes into account its genesis resulting from various processes and phenomena occurring in the troposphere. This approach makes it possible to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall in relation to the annual number of events. The second element is the model of logistic regression, which can be used to model the storm overflow resulting from the occurrence of a single rainfall event. The paper confirmed that storm overflow can be modeled based on data on the total rainfall and its duration. An alternative approach was also proposed, providing the possibility of predicting storm overflow only based on the average rainfall intensity. Substantial simplification in the simulation of the phenomenon under study was achieved compared with the works published in this area to date. It is worth noting that the coefficients determined in the logit models have a physical interpretation, and the universal character of these models facilitates their easy adaptation to other examined catchment areas. The calculations made in the paper using the example of the examined catchment allowed for an assessment of the influence of rainfall characteristics (depth, intensity, and duration) of different genesis on the probability of storm overflow. Based on the obtained results, the range of the variability of the average rainfall intensity, which determines the storm overflow, and the annual number of overflows resulting from the occurrence of rain of different genesis were defined. The results are suited for the implementation in the assessment of storm overflows only based on the genetic type of rainfall. The results may be used to develop warning systems in which information about the predicted rainfall genesis is an element of the assessment of the rainwater system and its facilities. This approach is an original solution that has not yet been considered by other researchers. On the other hand, it represents an important simplification and an opportunity to reduce the amount of data to be measured.

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“…Dike breach close to the village of Fischbeck on June 10, around 10 h after its occurrence in 2013 (Jüpner, ).…”

Section: Experiences From the Recent Flood Disaster On The Elbe Rivermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the entire 2013 Elbe River flood in Germany, 13 dike breaks were recorded along the Elbe River and its major tributaries (Heyer and Stamm, ). This attests to the necessity of engaging in a fundamental discussion about sustainable flood risk management that includes consideration of the fact that catastrophic consequences can result from the failure of hydraulic engineering structures constructed according to current building codes.…”

Section: Experiences From the Recent Flood Disaster On The Elbe Rivermentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping with extremes – experiences from event management during the recent Elbe flood disaster in 2013

Jüpner

2017

J Flood Risk Management

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Up to now, it has been common practice to use technical flood protection measures such as dikes and retention basins to secure the prosperity and well‐being of societies that are threatened by floods. Recent flood events in Europe have demonstrated in a profound way that extreme floods not only have the potential to cause enormous damage but also that technical structures do not entirely solve the problem; additional concepts now need to be considered. During the Elbe flood disaster of 2013 in Germany, two dike breaks occurred. The unpredicted flooding that followed resulted in enormous harm and tremendous material damage to thousands of inhabitants. Post‐crisis assessment indicates that consideration of extreme flood events is essential to flood risk management and that preparation is necessary to mitigate negative consequences. The use of floodplain areas that lie close to rivers is a key aspect in this respect. Even if dikes currently protect these areas, a broad societal discussion must take place in order to optimise flood prevention.

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Levee reliability analysis using logistic regression models – abilities, limitations and practical considerations

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Application of the selected classification models to the analysis of the settling capacity of the activated sludge – case study

Application of the selected classification models to the analysis of the settling capacity of the activated sludge – case study

Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operations: a probabilistic approach

Coping with extremes – experiences from event management during the recent Elbe flood disaster in 2013

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