Lessons Learned from the 2017 Flash Drought across the U.S. Northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies

Hoell, Andrew; Parker, B. A.; Downey, Michael; Umphlett, Natalie; Jencso, K. G.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Peck, Dannele E.; Hadwen, Trevor; Fuchs, Brian; Kluck, Doug; Edwards, Laura M.; Perlwitz, Judith; Eischeid, Jon; Deheza, Veva; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Bevington, Kathryn

doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0272.1

Cited by 40 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The occurrence of flash droughts has been examined in many regions worldwide, but most studies are limited to a basin 28 , 36 , 37 , several states 21 , 30 , 38 , or a country 9 , 13 , 29 , 39 . A previous study produced a global map of flash droughts, with a focus on the contribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and P to the occurrence of flash droughts 40 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity

et al. 2022

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The emergence of flash drought has attracted widespread attention due to its rapid onset. However, little is known about the recent evolution of flash droughts in terms of the speed of onset and the causes of such a rapid onset phase of flash droughts. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of the onset development of flash droughts and the underlying mechanisms on a global scale. We find that 33.64−46.18% of flash droughts with 5-day onset of drying, and there is a significant increasing trend in the proportion of flash droughts with the 1-pentad onset time globally during the period 2000−2020. Flash droughts do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most global regions, just coming on faster. In addition, atmospheric aridity is likely to create a flash drought-prone environment, and the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity further accelerates the rapid onset of flash droughts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity

et al. 2022

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“…A natural question is whether noteworthy flash droughts would have been considered exceptionally severe had their rapid intensification been terminated by heavy rainfall that quickly ameliorated drought conditions. For example, though people were caught by surprise by the extremely rapid drought intensification that occurred during the 2012 and 2017 US flash droughts [37,38], what made them especially destructive was that the extreme drought conditions persisted for many months after the period of rapid intensification ended. These examples illustrate why it is important to consider both the magnitude of the rapid intensification and the resultant drought severity when assessing flash drought characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Flash Drought Intensity Index

et al. 2021

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Flash droughts are characterized by a period of rapid intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that culminates in the rapid emergence of new or worsening drought impacts. This study presents a new flash drought intensity index (FDII) that accounts for both the unusually rapid rate of drought intensification and its resultant severity. The FDII framework advances our ability to characterize flash drought because it provides a more complete measure of flash drought intensity than existing classification methods that only consider the rate of intensification. The FDII is computed using two terms measuring the maximum rate of intensification (FD_INT) and average drought severity (DRO_SEV). A climatological analysis using soil moisture data from the Noah land surface model from 1979–2017 revealed large regional and interannual variability in the spatial extent and intensity of soil moisture flash drought across the US. Overall, DRO_SEV is slightly larger over the western and central US where droughts tend to last longer and FD_INT is ~75% larger across the eastern US where soil moisture variability is greater. Comparison of the FD_INT and DRO_SEV terms showed that they are strongly correlated (r = 0.82 to 0.90) at regional scales, which indicates that the subsequent drought severity is closely related to the magnitude of the rapid intensification preceding it. Analysis of the 2012 US flash drought showed that the FDII depiction of severe drought conditions aligned more closely with regions containing poor crop conditions and large yield losses than that captured by the intensification rate component (FD_INT) alone.

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“…Given the rapid land-surface desiccation associated with flash drought, the agricultural sector can be devastated and experience substantial economic damage due to lower crop yields and curtailed livestock production [1][2][3][4] . Rapid drought intensification can severely impact ecosystems via excessive evaporative stress on the environment [5][6][7][8][9][10] and contribute to compound extreme events with cascading impacts including an increased risk for wildfire development, depletion of water resources, reduction of air quality, and decreased food security [11][12][13][14][15][16] .…”

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Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence

et al. 2021

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Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and the human environment. Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental understanding of flash drought occurrence. This study identifies global hotspots for flash drought from 1980–2015 via anomalies in evaporative stress and the standardized evaporative stress ratio. Flash drought hotspots exist over Brazil, the Sahel, the Great Rift Valley, and India, with notable local hotspots over the central United States, southwestern Russia, and northeastern China. Six of the fifteen study regions experienced a statistically significant increase in flash drought during 1980–2015. In contrast, three study regions witnessed a significant decline in flash drought frequency. Finally, the results illustrate that multiple pathways of research are needed to further our understanding of the regional drivers of flash drought and the complex interactions between flash drought and socioeconomic impacts.

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Lessons Learned from the 2017 Flash Drought across the U.S. Northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies

Abstract: Capsule Summary The rapid onset and severity of the 2017 Northern Great Plains drought, which resulted in agricultural losses exceeding $2.6 billion, motivated a multi-agency investigation of drought-related coordination and management practices.

Cited by 40 publications

References 21 publications

Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity

Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity

Development of a Flash Drought Intensity Index

Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence

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