Lessons learned and lessons missed: Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination

Abstract

Industrialised countries have varied in their early response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and how they have adapted to new situations and knowledge since the pandemic began. These variations in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from Covid-19 as well as from other diseases. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in any of these countries. Taken over the entire year, an estimated 1,401,900 (95% credible interval 1,259,700-1,572,500) more people died in these 40 countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. This is equivalent to 140 (126-157) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (13-17) increase in deaths over this period in all of these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower over this period than what would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the populations of the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Netherlands. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Until the great majority of national and global populations have vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the death toll of the pandemic from Covid-19 and other diseases will remain dependent on actions to delay and contain infections and continue routine health and social care.

Dynamics of Regional Mortality Rates From Cardiac Causes in Russia 2019–2020

“…Так, в настоящее время нет возможности провести анализ вклада COVID-19 в смертность от кардиологических причин (Росстат предоставляет возможность получения информации только по ППС). Но даже в тех странах, где существует возможность учета и анализа данных по множественным причинам смерти (т. е. осложнениям, причинам, способствующим смерти), исследователи говорят о проблемах такого анализа, связанных с отсутствием четких критериев определения ППС, и указывают, что лучшим оценочным показателем учета последствий COVID-19 до сих пор является оценка избыточной смертности от всех причин [13,14].…”

Playing the opening and middle games against Covid-19

“…46 The WHO rate for 2020 is higher than the estimate by Kontis et al, which was from mid-February 2020 to mid-February 2021. 47 The other three studies give estimates for 2020. 48 Their lowest estimate of the number who would have survived in the UK, or England and Wales, with Germany's mortality rate from Covid-19, was 40,000.…”

Community factors and excess mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden

“…The multitude of factors affecting mortality and the heterogeneity of data collected in different countries make accurate international comparisons challenging. Existing comparison studies have examined COVID-19 mortality between countries down to the NUTS3 regional level [2][3][4] but not for smaller areas that would allow the identification of the community characteristics which affect the risk of excess mortality in local populations. 5 Here we study England, Italy and Sweden, three European countries differently affected by the pandemic and characterised by very different public health responses and policies.…”