Lessons from the past: Inaccurate credibility assessments made during crisis situations

Abstract

This paper will illustrate and analyze various examples of incorrect credibility assessments that were made during crisis situations by decision makers. These situations include incorrect credibility assessments from assumed subject matter experts, computers and automated systems, distrust between groups and rumors. Various factors during an emergency such as stress and lack of experience may influence what cues the decision maker notices and how they interpret this information. Trusting and acting on this incorrect information often times prolonged the crisis and created additional problems to resolve. Recognizing the weaknesses in these credibility assessments can provide the basis for future training opportunities for emergency management decision makers.