Objective: To investigate whether dementia risk can be estimated using only health deficits not known to predict dementia.
Methods:A frailty index consisting of 19 deficits not known to predict dementia (the nontraditional risk factors index [FI-NTRF]) was constructed for 7,239 cognitively healthy, communitydwelling older adults in the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. From baseline, their 5-year and 10-year risks for Alzheimer disease (AD), dementia of all types, and survival were estimated.
Results:The FI-NTRF was closely correlated with age (r 2 Ͼ 0.96, p Ͻ 0.001). The incidence of AD and dementia increased exponentially with the FI-NTRF (r 2 Ͼ 0.75, p Ͻ 0.001 over 10 years).Adjusted for age, sex, education, and baseline cognition, the odds ratio of dementia increased by 3.2% (p ϭ 0.021) for each deficit (that was not known to predict dementia) accumulated, outperforming the individual cognitive risk factors. The FI-NTRF discriminated people with AD and allcause dementia from those who were cognitively healthy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.66 Ϯ 0.03.
Conclusions:Comprehensive re-evaluation of a well-characterized cohort showed that ageassociated decline in health status, in addition to traditional risk factors, is a risk factor for AD and dementia. General health may be an important confounder to consider in dementia risk factor evaluation. If a diverse range of deficits is associated with dementia, then improving general health might reduce dementia risk. Age remains the single most potent risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD). This is so even though many age-related health problems, such as heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes, are recognized as AD risk factors. 1,2 To this list, other problems common in older people might be added: high plasma cholesterol, morning cough, a sedentary lifestyle, pesticide exposure, dementia in a spouse, and feeling tired, lonely, or unwell have each also been reported to increase the risk of dementia.
3-8The diversity of risks for late-life dementia, and in particular AD, may itself be informative. Their broad range suggests that AD is more likely in people with a broadly constituted decline in health. Support for this hypothesis comes from studies that link frailty to dementia, 9 and more generally, to cognitive decline, 10 and from a recent review which found that dementia risk was best predicted by models that used multiple risk factors.
11If most known risk factors individually discriminate people at risk only poorly, 11 there may be merit in using an integrative approach to their evaluation. In studies of aging, the frailty From the