Lessons from a pandemic

Abstract

Objectives : Several interventions have been used around the world trying to contain the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, such as quarantine, prohibition of mass demonstrations, isolation of sick people, tracing of virus carriers, semi-containment, promotion of barrier gestures, development of rapid auto-tests and vaccines among others. We propose a simple model to evaluate the potential impact of such interventions. Methods : A model for the reproduction number of an infectious disease including three main contexts of infection (indoor mass events, public indoor activities and household) and seven parameters is considered. We illustrate how these parameters could be obtained from the literature or from expert assumptions, and we apply the model to describe 20 scenarios that can typically occur during the different phases of a pandemic. Results : This model provides a useful framework for better understanding and communicating the effects of different (combinations of) possible interventions, while encouraging constant updating of expert assumptions to better match reality. Conclusion : This simple approach will bring more transparency and public support to help governments to think, decide, evaluate and adjust what to do during a pandemic.