Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: The experience of the Pampas Model of Argentinean agricultural systems

Bert, Federico; Rovere, Santiago L.; Macal, Charles M.; North, Michael; Podestá, Guillermo

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.024

Cited by 47 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(94 reference statements)

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“…ABMs can be used for linking the biophysical and socioeconomic components of social-ecological systems characterized by multiple, stochastic and non-linear interactions (Matthews and Bakam, 2007;Rounsevell et al, 2012;Bert et al, 2014). Applications of ABMs offers a mechanism for incorporating human decision-making criteria on land use change at multiple scales Schindler, 2013;Bert et al, 2014).…”

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The plant functional types compete for water and light (Lehsten et al, 2016) and their changing distribution at regional and functional scales is simulated (Quillet et al, 2010;Scheiter et al, 2013). ABMs can be used for linking the biophysical and socioeconomic components of social-ecological systems characterized by multiple, stochastic and non-linear interactions (Matthews and Bakam, 2007;Rounsevell et al, 2012;Bert et al, 2014). Applications of ABMs offers a mechanism for incorporating human decision-making criteria on land use change at multiple scales Schindler, 2013;Bert et al, 2014).…”

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pollen, People and Place: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Ecosystem Change at Amboseli, Kenya

et al. 2018

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This study presents a multidisciplinary perspective for understanding environmental change and emerging socio-ecological interactions across the Amboseli region of southwestern Kenya. We focus on late Holocene (<5,000 cal yr. BP) changes and continuities reconstructed from sedimentary, archeological, historical records and socio-ecological models. We utilize multi-disciplinary approaches to understand environmental-ecosystem-social interactions over the longue durée and use this to simulate different land use scenarios supporting conservation and sustainable livelihoods using a socio-ecological model. Today the semi-arid Amboseli landscape supports a large livestock and wildlife population, sustained by a wide variety of plants and extensive rangelands regulated by seasonal rainfall and human activity. Our data provide insight into how large-scale and long-term interactions of climate, people, livestock, wildlife and external connections have shaped the ecosystems across the Amboseli landscape. Environmental conditions were dry between ∼5,000 and 2,000 cal yr. BP, followed by two wet periods at ∼2,100-1,500 and 1,400-800 cal yr. BP with short dry periods; the most recent centuries were characterized by variable climate with alternative dry and wet phases with high spatial heterogeneity. Most evident in paleo and historical records is the changing woody to grass cover ratio, driven by changes in climate and fire regimes entwined with fluctuating elephant, cattle and wild ungulate populations moderated by human activity, including elephant ivory trade intensification. Archeological perspectives on the occupation of different groups (hunter-gatherers, pastoralists, and farmers) in Amboseli region and the relationships between them are discussed. An overview of the known history of humans and elephants, expanding networks of trade, and the arrival and integration of metallurgy, livestock and domesticated crops in the wider region is provided. In recent decades, increased runoff and flooding have resulted in the expansion of wetlands and a reduction of woody vegetation, compounding problems created by increased enclosure and privatization of these landscapes. However, most Githumbi et al.Long-Term Multidisciplinary Perspectives at Amboseli, Kenya of the wetlands outside of the protected area are drying up because of the intensified water extraction by the communities surrounding the National Park and on the adjacent mountains areas, who have increased in numbers, become sedentary and diversified land use around the wetlands.

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Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pollen, People and Place: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Ecosystem Change at Amboseli, Kenya

et al. 2018

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“…There are different methods of validating ABM such as comparison to real world data [73], an indirect approach [71], role playing games [74] or extensive sensitivity analysis [22,75,76]. The present study adopts a stepwise sensitivity analysis of model performance.…”

Section: Model Validation and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Brändle

Langendijk

Peter³

et al. 2015

Land

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Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments OPEN ACCESSLand 2015, 4 476 where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land abandonment and re-forestation in mountain regions.

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“…Furthermore, the design of LARMA involved the participation of subject matter experts from AACREA, a farmers' organization partnering in our work (http:// www.aacrea.org.ar/). The design of LARMA processes and mechanisms involved an initial revision of existing theories and related models and subsequent interactions with experts to discuss e and eventually modify e model processes and underlying assumptions (Bert et al, 2014). In some cases we modified the existing theory to reflect the way in which experts described reality.…”

Section: The Pampas Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We ran a set of simulations using the version of the PM described by Bert et al (2014). The simulations represented the northern Buenos Aires region during the period 1988 to 2009.…”

Section: Simulation Detailsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating agricultural land rental markets by combining agent-based models with traditional economics concepts: The case of the Argentine Pampas

Bert

North

Rovere

et al. 2015

Environmental Modelling & Software

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a b s t r a c tLand exchange through rental transactions is a central process in agricultural systems. The land tenure regimes emerge from land transactions and structural and land use changes are tied to the dynamics of the land market. We introduce LARMA, a LAnd Rental MArket model embedded within the Pampas Model (PM), an agent-based model of Argentinean agricultural systems. LARMA produces endogenous formation of land rental prices. LARMA relies on traditional economic concepts for LRP formation but addresses some drawbacks of this approach by being integrated into an agent-based model that considers heterogeneous agents interacting with one another. PM-LARMA successfully reproduced the agricultural land tenure regimes and land rental prices observed in the Pampas. Including adaptive, heterogeneous and interacting agents was critical to this success. We conclude that agent-based and traditional economic models can be successfully combined to capture complex emergent land tenure and market price patterns while simplifying the overall model design.

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Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: The experience of the Pampas Model of Argentinean agricultural systems

Cited by 47 publications

References 48 publications

Pollen, People and Place: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Ecosystem Change at Amboseli, Kenya

Pollen, People and Place: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Ecosystem Change at Amboseli, Kenya

Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Simulating agricultural land rental markets by combining agent-based models with traditional economics concepts: The case of the Argentine Pampas

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