Les déterminants à long terme des comptes externes brésiliens

Abstract

The long term determinants of the Brazilian foreign accounts This article discusses the macroeconomic determinants of current account imbalances and analyses how these variables evolved in Brazilian economy recently. We also compare episodes of huge current account imbalances in selected developing countries to try to determine how long and to which level a country can sustain systematic deficits. Finally we simulate the path of future current account deficits in Brazil in the context of a necessary increase in potential GDP in the years ahead, concluding that Brazil will probably run moderate deficits to enhance its sustainable GDP growth. Classification JEL : F2, F3, F43, O2, O54.