“…The CSM is a model of causal judgment and not of causal learning Goodman, Ullman, & Tenenbaum, 2011;Kemp, Goodman, & Tenenbaum, 2010;Lake, Ullman, Tenenbaum, & Gershman, 2016;Tenenbaum, Kemp, Griffiths, & Goodman, 2011;Ullman, Goodman, & Tenenbaum, 2012;Wellman & Gelman, 1992). The CSM assumes that people already possess a causal model that incorporates the relevant domain knowledge for simulating different counterfactuals (see Bear et al, 2020;Ullman, Stuhlmüller, Goodman, & Tenenbaum, 2018;Yi* et al, 2020, for work on how physical models may be learned). However, we don't assume that people's causal model is perfectly accurate, and we capture this uncertainty by introducing noise into the physical simulation model as described below (Smith et al, submitted;Ullman, Spelke, Battaglia, & Tenenbaum, 2017).…”