Leading Point Multi-Regression Model for Detection of Anomalous Days in German Energy System

Abstract

In this article, the Leading Point Multi-Regression model was applied to identify days with anomalous energy consumption profiles. The data for the analysis come from the German energy system and they represent the hourly energy demand observed between 2006 and 2015. Days with abnormal daily profiles were identified based on the statistical analysis of the errors observed for the model. The accuracy of the model is very high and comparable with other models, e.g., LSTM, K-means, Recurrent NN, and tree-based ML methods. However, these methods rely on external factors (e.g., humidity, temperature, and sunshine) impacting energy consumption while our model uses only the energy consumption at specific fixed hours, regardless of external factors, thus being universal. Days with anomalous energy consumption profiles were identified as days related to celebration of New Year’s Eve and the New Year. Also, anomalies were identified for some other days, which were not that obvious, including Good Friday, National Day of Mourning, and, interestingly, the day of the Germany–Turkey match during the European Championship in 2008.