Latest Advances and Challenges in Extreme Flood 3D Simulation

Abstract

This chapter canvasses the latest developments in the modelling and communication of environmental extremes, with a focus on floods. Three scenarios are explored. The first refers to real-time prediction, including the current modelling basis that is adopted, and the visualisation/communication strategies in place. The second refers to an environmental extreme event that is conditional to a failure scenario, as is the case when an existing infrastructure (i.e. levee or spillway in an extreme flood) fails. The third, more complex scenario is the occurrence of a compound or joint extreme, possibly in the future, where extreme storms will intensify. A compound extreme here could represent a flood event that follows from an incident of rare storm conditions on a fire-damaged landscape. While the modelling challenges are significant, visualisation is even more challenging, as the scenario occurs under a hypothetical future. Demonstrating how coupled models can support the anticipation of extreme event scenarios, the chapter considers implications for risk assessment and communication that can support future preparedness and resilience. Surveying knowledge gaps that still need to be bridged, the authors formulate a list of key requirements in the fields of data availability, processing and representation.