Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

Abstract

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa’s path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its Sustainable Development Goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, most of these projections of electricity demand do not explicitly account for latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met). Our paper reviews electricity demand estimation and consumption literature to propose a framework for quantifying latent demand. In our study, we found that of the 56 papers reviewed only 3 (5%) of them incorporated latent demand in their projection of electricity demand in SSA. Majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. Furthermore, we identified population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders in SSA, especially investors and policymakers, about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

Incorporating Elicited Preferences for Equality into Electricity System Planning Modeling

“…While about 60% of our sample were non-US citizens, it must be noted that their enrollment in an engineering graduate program at a private institution may indicate a tendency to maximize social benefit from infrastructure development. Given that the existing literature suggests that female decision makers tend to be more focused on the welfare of their community than their male counterparts in decisionmaking [40][41][42], we decided to compare preferences for equality between male and female decision makers. Of all decision makers, 60% were male participants and 40% were female participants.…”

“…Since these results are an aggregation of the point estimate of each decision maker's preference for equality, we evaluate the uncertainty associated with the statistical estimation process in Section 3.5. Given that the existing literature suggests that female decision makers tend to be more focused on the welfare of their community than their male counterparts in decisionmaking [40][41][42], we decided to compare preferences for equality between male and female decision makers. Of all decision makers, 60% were male participants and 40% were female participants.…”

The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030

“…Rather, these service providers have tailored offtake agreements, or they even invest in electricity generation assets themselves. While, based on a need for policymaking 43 , research has started developing tools to estimate future productive use locally 44 more research integrating different types of productive use into more macro-oriented models is required 45 , 46 .…”

Practical Solutions for Energy Transition Emerging in Sub-Saharan Africa

“…While the least-cost optimization models foreign research institutions often build for the continent are essential to informing development pathways for achieving affordable access to electricity, their outcomes are heavily dependent on input assumptions regarding future electricity demand. Yet he authors' study, entitled 'Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: a review,' [6] details the results of literature review which shows that less than 5% of existing research papers on electricity demand in Africa incorporate latent demand in their electricity demand projections.…”