Latent Class Analysis Identifies Distinct Phenotypes of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Predictive of Flares after mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination: Results from the Coronavirus National Vaccine Registry for ImmuNe Diseases SINGapore (CONVIN-SING)

Abstract

We recently reported that messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination was associated with flares in 9% of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Herein, we focused our analysis on patients from a multi-ethnic Southeast Asian lupus cohort with the intention of identifying distinct phenotypes associated with increased flares after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: Six hundred and thirty-three SLE patients from eight public healthcare institutions were divided into test and validation cohorts based on healthcare clusters. Latent class analysis was performed based on age, ethnicity, gender, vaccine type, past COVID-19 infection, interruption of immunomodulatory/immunosuppressive treatment for vaccination, disease activity and background immunomodulatory/immunosuppressive treatment as input variables. Data from both cohorts were then combined for mixed effect Cox regression to determine which phenotypic cluster had a higher risk for time to first SLE flare, adjusted for the number of vaccine doses. Results: Two clusters were identified in the test (C1 vs. C2), validation (C1′ vs. C2′) and combined (C1″ vs. C2″) cohorts, with corresponding clusters sharing similar characteristics. Of 633 SLE patients, 88.6% were female and there was multi-ethnic representation with 74.9% Chinese, 14.2% Malay and 4.6% Indian. The second cluster (C2, C2′ and C2″) was smaller compared to the first. SLE patients in the second cluster (C2 and C2′) were more likely to be male, non-Chinese and younger, with higher baseline disease activity. The second cluster (C2″) had more incident flares (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.9, p = 0.014) after vaccination. A higher proportion of patients in C2″ had immunomodulatory/immunosuppressive treatment interruption for vaccination as compared to patients in C1″ (6.6% vs. 0.2%) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We identified two distinct phenotypic clusters of SLE with different patterns of flares following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. Caution has to be exercised in monitoring for post-vaccination flares in patients with risk factors for flares such as non-Chinese ethnicity, young age, male gender and suboptimal disease control at the time of vaccination.