Warming generates hot droughts (Overpeck, 2013) where the ecological effects of reduced precipitation become amplified through the exponential response of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) to temperature (Breshears et al., 2005;Williams et al., 2013). The increase in evaporative demand on soils and plants leads to a decline in leaf water potential and consequently hydraulic failure (McDowell et al., 2016). The outcome of this is down-regulation of photosynthesis and senescence as well as susceptibility to disturbances including fire and insect attack (C. D. Allen et al., 2010;Clifford et al., 2013;Sala, 2009). The direct pathway between rising temperature and forest stress has been documented through controlled manipulation experiments (Adams et al., 2009) and gas exchange measurements taken during periods of temperature stress (McDowell et al., 2016). However, understanding the regional-scale response of forests to warming requires a holistic perspective that considers the broader dynamical changes in the climate system that come with an increase in radiative forcing (Diffenbaugh et al., 2006;Harrison et al., 2003;Pascale et al., 2017). Some of these changes, such as a regional shift towards earlier snowpack melt (Mote et al., 2018), are expected to exacerbate the direct effects of VPD on