LASAM Model: An Important Tool in the Decision Support System for Policymakers and Farmers

Abstract

Today’s global food system (including production, transportation, processing, packing, storage, retail sale, consumption, losses and waste) provides income to more than a billion people all over the world and makes up a significant part of many countries’ economies. The 21st century’s food systems that bring food from “farm to fork” face various challenges, including a shortage of agricultural land and water, competition with the energy industry, changes in consumption preferences, a rising global population, negative effects of climate change, etc. Therefore, many countries are working on creating various models to function as an important decision support system tool for policymakers, farmers and other stakeholders. Various agricultural sector models see particularly extensive use in the European Union (EU), determining the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and helping to create future development scenarios. This is why a special model adapted to the national conditions, called LASAM (Latvian Agricultural Sector Analysis Model), was created in Latvia, making it possible to use historical data on the development of agricultural sectors, medium-term price projections for agricultural products in the EU, changes in support policy, as well as the necessity for the resources used to project the long-term (up to 2050) development of agriculture. The LASAM model covers the crop sector, the animal sector and the overall socioeconomic development, as well as the growth of organic farming and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discusses the main objectives achieved in developing a decision support tool and presenting the research results: LASAM was used to prepare projections of the possible development of Latvia’s principal sectors of agriculture until 2050, considering the necessity to reduce GHG emissions, made available through the LASAM web application. Given that the projection data obtained by LASAM are public, they can be used (1) for national policy making in rural business development, which affects the development of the economy as a whole; and (2) internationally, to compare the projections made in Latvia with those obtained through various agricultural sector models and projected development trends.

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“…In the past, farmers projected crop yield based on their knowledge and trustworthy historical data and then used the forecast to guide significant cultivation decisions (Pilvere et al. 2022).…”

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