Largest earthquake in Himalaya: An appraisal

Srivastava, H. N.; Bansal, B. K.; Verma, Mithila

doi:10.1007/s12594-013-0117-4

Cited by 30 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It has been suggested that such large earthquakes, which generally occur in subduction zones, may not occur in the Himalaya (e.g. Srivastava et al 2013), including the Kashmir valley region (Shah 2013), and we partially agree with this view. We provide here more robust arguments based on geological and geophysical data to strengthen the proposal that an M w 9 earthquake is unlikely to occur in the Himalayan region.…”

supporting

confidence: 84%

Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Gupta¹,

Gahalaut²

2015

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It has been suggested that all of the Earth's subduction zones are capable of producing an M w 9 earthquake. Such a possibility has also been suggested for the Himalayan collisional arc. We examined recent and historical earthquakes in the Himalayan region and suggest that, in the past few hundred years, only great earthquakes (M w 8) have occurred in the region, the largest being the 1950 Assam earthquake with M w 8.6. Several aseismic ridges segment the Himalayan arc and these appear to have limited the extent of rupture in earthquakes of the past 200 years. There is also evidence of distributed deformation and out-of-sequence thrusting, where only part of the detachment participates in the accommodation of the convergence. We concluded that, although it is unlikely that an M w 9 earthquake could occur in the Himalaya, from the hazard point of view a great earthquake of M w 8 anywhere along the Himalayan arc could kill about one million people in the Himalaya and adjoining Indo-Ganga plains. As an example, a scenario developed for a hypothetical M w 8 earthquake occurring in the middle of the night at Mandi, close to the epicentre of the 1905 Kangra earthquake, predicts an estimated loss of one million human lives.

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supporting

confidence: 84%

Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Gupta¹,

Gahalaut²

2015

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“…The largest earthquake (1950, M w 8.4-8.6) occurred near syntaxial bend (Mukhopadhyay et al 2011a). The recurrence of the largest earthquake in this zone is attributed to dominance of thrusting and remnant subduction along the eastern boundary and larger component of stress vector due to north-east movement of Indian plate (Srivastava et al 2013). The region is, therefore, placed in seismic gap of category 1 with the largest earthquake magnitude as $8.5.…”

Section: Arunachal Seismic Gapmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…The manner in which slip is partitioned in Himalayan region with complex fault pattern does not enable us to give correct estimate of seismic slip and needs further investigations. Their estimate of 8.5-9 magnitude earthquake is, therefore, ruled out in central and western Himalaya (Srivastava et al 2013). Since, there is no history of large/great earthquake in this region; it is placed in seismic gap of category 2 with the largest earthquake of magnitude $7.5.…”

Section: Western Nepal Seismic Gapmentioning

confidence: 98%

Discriminatory characteristics of seismic gaps in Himalaya

Srivastava¹,

Verma

Bansal

et al. 2013

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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Contrary to most of the earlier theories that great earthquakes (M w 8.5 or even larger) may occur anywhere along the Indian plate boundary assuming uniform strain accumulation, this paper proposes two types of gaps with discriminatory characteristics. The new gaps were initially identified from earthquakes of magnitude 6, whose return periods in Himalaya vary between 20 and 30 years and are well within the period of reliable instrumental data of about 100 years. These gaps were then integrated with the largest magnitude event in instrumental era and historical times; information on paleoseismicity, micro-seismicity data, GPS-based geodetic observations and the tectonic features. The regions where great/major earthquakes (Mw 8 or larger) have occurred in the past are classified as seismic gap of category 1, namely Kashmir, west Himachal Pradesh (Kangra), Uttarakhand to Dharachulla, central Nepal to Bihar, Shillong, Arunachal gap including Assam-Tibet-Myanmar syntaxis. On the other hand, the second category of seismic gap includes JammuKishtwar block, east Himachal Pradesh, western Nepal (excluding Dharachulla region) and Sikkim-Bhutan where history of large earthquakes is not available. In these gaps, the largest earthquake magnitude is smaller (7-7.5) and the recurrence interval for earthquakes of same magnitude is larger as compared to category 1 gaps.

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“…A recent article by Srivastava et al (2013) criticizes the weaknesses of the historical record ( Figure 5.6(a)) but then uses it as a template to conclude that the Himalaya are unable to sustain earthquakes larger than M w ¼ 8.6 in the east or M w ¼ 7.6 in the west, with a range of intermediate magnitudes in between, as exemplified by the past century of earthquakes. The authors deny that the Himalaya can sustain approximately 600-km-long ruptures, and propose that the region is too segmented to permit long ruptures to propagate.…”

Section: Denying the Unprecedentedd"m W [ 90 Earthquakes Cannot Occumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors deny that the Himalaya can sustain approximately 600-km-long ruptures, and propose that the region is too segmented to permit long ruptures to propagate. Historical accounts of collapsed temples in Tibet and damage to Agra in 1505 are attributed by Srivastava et al (2013) to a modest earthquake in the region and to local amplification effects. Yet, most certainly creep is currently absent (Bilham et al, 1997;Avouac, 2003;Ader et al, 2012).…”

Section: Denying the Unprecedentedd"m W [ 90 Earthquakes Cannot Occumentioning

confidence: 99%

Aggravated Earthquake Risk in South Asia

Bilham

2014

Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters

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Largest earthquake in Himalaya: An appraisal

Cited by 30 publications

References 29 publications

Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Discriminatory characteristics of seismic gaps in Himalaya

Aggravated Earthquake Risk in South Asia

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Largest earthquake in Himalaya: An appraisal

Cited by 30 publications

References 29 publications

Can an earthquake of M w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Can an earthquake of M w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Discriminatory characteristics of seismic gaps in Himalaya

Aggravated Earthquake Risk in South Asia

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Product

Resources

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Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?

Can an earthquake of M _w ∼9 occur in the Himalayan region?