Large to intermediate-scale aquifer heterogeneity in fine-grain dominated alluvial fans (Cenozoic As Pontes Basin, northwestern Spain): insight based on three-dimensional geostatistical reconstruction
Abstract:Facies reconstructions are used in hydrogeology to improve the interpretation of aquifer permeability.. In the absence of sufficient data to define the heterogeneity due to geological processes, uncertainties in the distribution of aquifer hydrofacies and characteristics may appear. Geometric and geostatistical methods are used to understand and model aquifer hydrofacies distribution, providing models to improve comprehension and development of aquifers. However, these models require some input statistical par… Show more
“…In sand and gravel, however, the sedimentary or permeability correlation length in the vertical direction is within only a few meters or even decimeters (Hess et al 1992;Jussel et al 1994;Rubin 2003;Falivene et al 2007); thus, a number of measurements are required to distinguish the vertical trend of geological heterogeneity. As an alternative, indirect methods using empirical equations of grain size, porosity or other factors in samples, give K values that approximately agree with measurements taken at the same depth (e.g., Vukovic and Soro 1992;Cheong et al 2008;Song et al 2009;Vienken and Dietrich 2011).…”
Abstract:To determine depth dependence of permeability in various geologic deposits, exponential models have often been proposed. However, spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity, K, rarely fits this trend in coarse alluvial aquifers, where complex stratigraphic sequences follow unique trends due to depositional and post-depositional processes. This paper analyzes K of alluvial-fan gravel deposits in several boreholes, and finds exponential decay in K with depth. Relatively undisturbed gravel cores obtained in the Toyohira River alluvial fan, Sapporo, Japan, are categorized by four levels of fine-sediment packing between gravel grains. Grain size is also analyzed in cores from two boreholes in the mid-fan and one in the fan-toe. Profiles of estimated conductivity, K , are constructed from profiles of core properties through a well-defined relation between slug-test results and core properties. Errors in K are eliminated by a moving-average method, and regression analysis provides the decay exponents of K with depth. Moving-average results show a similar decreasing trend in only the mid-fan above ~30-m depth, and the decay exponent is estimated as ≈0.11 m -1 , which is 10-to 1000-fold that in consolidated rocks. A longitudinal cross section is also generated by using the profiles to establish hydrogeologic boundaries in the fan.
“…In sand and gravel, however, the sedimentary or permeability correlation length in the vertical direction is within only a few meters or even decimeters (Hess et al 1992;Jussel et al 1994;Rubin 2003;Falivene et al 2007); thus, a number of measurements are required to distinguish the vertical trend of geological heterogeneity. As an alternative, indirect methods using empirical equations of grain size, porosity or other factors in samples, give K values that approximately agree with measurements taken at the same depth (e.g., Vukovic and Soro 1992;Cheong et al 2008;Song et al 2009;Vienken and Dietrich 2011).…”
Abstract:To determine depth dependence of permeability in various geologic deposits, exponential models have often been proposed. However, spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity, K, rarely fits this trend in coarse alluvial aquifers, where complex stratigraphic sequences follow unique trends due to depositional and post-depositional processes. This paper analyzes K of alluvial-fan gravel deposits in several boreholes, and finds exponential decay in K with depth. Relatively undisturbed gravel cores obtained in the Toyohira River alluvial fan, Sapporo, Japan, are categorized by four levels of fine-sediment packing between gravel grains. Grain size is also analyzed in cores from two boreholes in the mid-fan and one in the fan-toe. Profiles of estimated conductivity, K , are constructed from profiles of core properties through a well-defined relation between slug-test results and core properties. Errors in K are eliminated by a moving-average method, and regression analysis provides the decay exponents of K with depth. Moving-average results show a similar decreasing trend in only the mid-fan above ~30-m depth, and the decay exponent is estimated as ≈0.11 m -1 , which is 10-to 1000-fold that in consolidated rocks. A longitudinal cross section is also generated by using the profiles to establish hydrogeologic boundaries in the fan.
“…The mean sand‐clay cutoff 0.41 is in agreement with the calculated sand proportion 0.40 from the electrical logs, which implies that the sand‐clay cutoff can be interpreted as the probability of occurrence [ Chilès and Delfiner , ]. While previous studies [ Johnson and Dreiss , ; Falivene et al ., ] consider a sand‐clay cutoff of 0.5 as a reasonable assumption. The calibration results show that a fixed cutoff 0.5 will result in an underestimation of sand proportion in this case.…”
[1] Analysts are often faced with competing propositions for each uncertain model component. How can we judge that we select a correct proposition(s) for an uncertain model component out of numerous possible propositions? We introduce the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method as a multimodel framework for uncertainty analysis. The HBMA allows for segregating, prioritizing, and evaluating different sources of uncertainty and their corresponding competing propositions through a hierarchy of BMA models that forms a BMA tree. We apply the HBMA to conduct uncertainty analysis on the reconstructed hydrostratigraphic architectures of the Baton Rouge aquifer-fault system, Louisiana. Due to uncertainty in model data, structure, and parameters, multiple possible hydrostratigraphic models are produced and calibrated as base models. The study considers four sources of uncertainty. With respect to data uncertainty, the study considers two calibration data sets. With respect to model structure, the study considers three different variogram models, two geological stationarity assumptions and two fault conceptualizations. The base models are produced following a combinatorial design to allow for uncertainty segregation. Thus, these four uncertain model components with their corresponding competing model propositions result in 24 base models. The results show that the systematic dissection of the uncertain model components along with their corresponding competing propositions allows for detecting the robust model propositions and the major sources of uncertainty.
“…This could be achieved applying geostatistics. Three-dimensional geostatistics has been successfully applied to reconstruct the large to intermediate heterogeneity of aquifers (Falivene et al, 2007), to reproduce the spatial variability of rock mass quality for geological excavations (Stavropoulou et al, 2007) and to map three-dimensional water-quality data to better protect the future health of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributary system (Chehata et al, 2007).…”
The heterogeneous three-dimensional spatial distribution of mycotoxins has proven to be one of the main limitations for the design of effective sampling protocols. Current sample collection protocols for mycotoxins have been designed to estimate the mean concentration and fail to characterise the spatial distribution of the mycotoxin concentration due to the aggregation of the incremental samples. Geostatistical techniques have been successfully applied to overcome similar problems in many research areas. However, little work has been developed on the use of geostatistics for the design of sampling protocols for mycotoxins. This paper focuses on the analysis of the two and three-dimensional spatial structure of fumonisins B1 (FB1) and B2 (FB2) in maize in a bulk store using a geostatistical approach and on how results help determine the number and location of incremental samples to be collected. The spatial correlation between FB1 and FB2, as well as between the number of kernels infected and the level of contamination was investigated. For this purpose, a bed of maize was sampled at different depths to generate a unique three-dimensional data set of FB1 and FB2. The analysis found no clear evidence of spatial structure in either the two-dimensional or three-dimensional analyses. The number of Fusarium infected kernels was not a good indicator for the prediction of fumonisin concentration and there was no spatial correlation between the concentrations of the two fumonisins.
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