Large-scale modes of atmospheric variability. Part I. Statistical analysis and hydrodynamic modeling

Kiktev, D. B.; Kruglova, E. N.; Kulikova, I. A.

doi:10.3103/s1068373915030012

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In the present context, the North Atlantic and North Pacific centres of action are known to influence the meteorological conditions in vast parts of the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981). Specifically, both atmospheric circulation patterns have been shown to influence the weather in Russia in boreal winter or spring (Kiktev et al , 2015). In the following, we report statistical evidence that relevant relationships do also exist during summer.…”

Section: Methodological Details and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved one‐month lead‐time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL–AV model

Willink

Khan

Donner

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is an important yet easy‐to‐calculate means to describing wet or dry conditions in very different climates. In this work, we develop a new scheme for improved one‐month lead‐time forecasts of this index over Russia. As a basic seasonal forecasting model, we utilize the semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian vorticity‐divergence (SL–AV) model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Based on hindcast simulations of this model, we demonstrate its relatively poor skills in obtaining direct one‐month lead‐time SPI forecasts in the region of interest. In order to improve the accuracy of these forecasts, we use mean sea‐level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height fields from model output of the same SL–AV hindcasts to identify informative predictors for the local SPI values, based on the observation that the cross‐correlation structure between the three different fields reveals relevant interdependencies between precipitation, mean sea‐level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height in different regions. Using this information in terms of regression models for obtaining both, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts provides a significant improvement of the SPI forecast skills, pointing to the potential for implementing the proposed scheme in operational one‐month lead‐time precipitation forecasts.

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Section: Methodological Details and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved one‐month lead‐time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL–AV model

Willink

Khan

Donner

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…The Western Pacific Index WP characterizes the western part of the Pacific Ocean and has the greatest impact on the climate of the Russian Far East and, in particular, the Kamchatka Peninsula (Khen et al, 2019a). The positive phase of the WP index is accompanied by an atmospheric pressure increase over Shelikhov Gulf and weakening of the Aleutian Low, the trajectory of cyclones in the Far East region shifts northward, and air temperature and precipitation increase in Kamchatka and Chukotka (Khen et al, 2019a; Kiktev et al, 2015). In the negative phase, the trajectories of cyclones, on the contrary, shift to the south and there is a shortage of precipitation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic factors affecting Kamchatka glacier recession

Korneva,

Toropov,

Muraviev

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The reduction in the area and volume of glaciation in all mountain regions of the Earth has strongly accelerated for the last decades. In this work, we analysed the trends of the main climatic parameters which caused the glacier recession in the Kamchatka Peninsula. It was shown that the glaciers of the northern part of the Sredinny Range decreased by 125 km2 (35.6%) from 1950 to 2016–2017. The average rate of their reduction in the period from 2002 to 2016–2017 (1.45%/year) increased approximately 4.3 times compared to the period 1950–2002 (0.34%/year). The greatest reduction is observed in small glaciers with an area of less than 0.1 km2 and in glaciers with southeastern and southern expositions. On the Kronotsky Peninsula, the glacier area reduction for 1957–2019 was equal to 32.1 km2 (35.6%), and the rates were almost the same in the periods of 1957–2000 (0.61%/year) and 2000–2019 (0.67%/year). According to the data of weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis, it was shown that, in the ablation (summer) period the warming rate was minimal (0.3°C/10 years) and in the accumulation period a significant decrease in precipitation (5%–10%/10 years) was revealed in some areas. At the same time, a significant increase in the radiation balance was revealed in the warm season along with a tendency in downward shortwave radiation increase for the last two decades due to a decrease in cloud amount. These trends are in good agreement with the growth of the geopotential height over the North Pacific during the warm season in the 21st century, and with the growth of velocity divergence in the middle troposphere and the intensification of downward air movements. All this confirms an increase in anticyclone frequency in the warm season, which could be the cause of a radiation balance increase and, consequently, an increase in glacier ablation.

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Analysis of Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability of Regional-Scale Atmospheric Processes at Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Vilfand,

Kulikova,

Khan

et al. 2023

Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys.

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Large-scale modes of atmospheric variability. Part I. Statistical analysis and hydrodynamic modeling

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Improved one‐month lead‐time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL–AV model

Improved one‐month lead‐time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL–AV model

Climatic factors affecting Kamchatka glacier recession

Analysis of Intraseasonal Variability and Predictability of Regional-Scale Atmospheric Processes at Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

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