Large-Scale Linkages of Socioeconomic Drought with Climate Variability and Its Evolution Characteristics in Northwest China

Abstract

Socioeconomic drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in the world and is closely related to human life. The main cause of socioeconomic drought is the contradiction between water supply and demand; hence, as local reservoirs play a major role in improving water supply and coping with extreme climate, it is reasonable to estimate socioeconomic drought based on reservoir operations. The multivariate standardized reliability and resilience index (MSRRI) is utilized to evaluate socioeconomic drought, considering the characteristics of reservoir management and storage water resources. Therefore, with the MSRRI, this study takes the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, which is controlled by two reservoirs dominating the upstream and downstream regions, as a case study to reveal the evolution characteristics of socioeconomic drought in the basin and the external impacts of climate variability. The results showed that (1) the drought intensity in the up-midstream region is stronger than that in the downstream region; in view of the hysteresis in the downstream region, the occurrence of drought in the up-midstream region could be regarded as an early warning to implement preventive measures in the downstream region; (2) an increasing trend in socioeconomic drought throughout the basin exists on both monthly and annual scales, which indicates that the increasing possibility of drought should be effectively addressed; (3) cross wavelet analysis indicated that the large-scale climate indices contribute to the variations in the socioeconomic droughts throughout the basin, indicating that climate variability may provide a reference for managers to deal with socioeconomic drought in the HRB.

Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects

“…To quantify the influence that agriculture and other human activities have on the frequency, distribution, and/or propagation of drought hazard, physical and engineering scientists have mostly employed numerical indexes (Al‐Faraj & Tigkas, 2016; Deo et al, 2009; Edalat & Stephen, 2019; Ghale et al, 2019; Guo, Huang, Huang, Wang, Fang, et al, 2019; Guo, Huang, Huang, Wang, Wang, & Fang, 2019; Huang et al, 2016; Jehanzaib, Shah, Kwon, & Kim, 2020; Li et al, 2019; Liu, Shi, & Sivakumar, 2020; Liu, Zhang, et al, 2020; Margariti et al, 2019; Mehran et al, 2015; Muhammad et al, 2020; Satgé et al, 2017; Shi et al, 2018; Tijdeman et al, 2018; Wan et al, 2017; Wang, Duan, et al, 2020; Wu et al, 2019; Xu et al, 2019; Yang et al, 2017; Zhao et al, 2019; Zou et al, 2018), statistical or geospatial analyses (Deo et al, 2009; Ghale et al, 2019; Jehanzaib, Shah, Kwon, & Kim, 2020; Kandakji et al, 2021; Liu et al, 2016; Liu, Zhang, et al, 2020; Mehran et al, 2015; Panda et al, 2007; Satgé et al, 2017; Wang, Duan, et al, 2020; Wang, Jiang, et al, 2020; Yang et al, 2017; Zou et al, 2018), and hydro‐meteorological models (Cook et al, 2009; Firoz et al, 2018; Ghale et al, 2019; He et al, 2017; Jehanzaib, Shah, Yoo, & Kim, 2020; Jiang et al, 2019; Kakaei et al, 2019; Kingston et al, 2021; Margariti et al, 2019; Mehran et al, 2015; Muhammad et al, 2020; Taufik et al, 2020; Tu et al, 2018; Wada et al, 2013; Wan et al, 2017; Wanders & Wada, 2015; Wang, Duan, et a...…”

“…More recently, socioeconomic drought scholars have closely investigated the condition in which the demand for water exceeds the available water supply (Edalat & Stephen, 2019;Eklund & Seaquist, 2015;Heidari et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2016;Liu, Shi, & Sivakumar, 2020;Liu, Zhang, et al, 2020;Mehran et al, 2015;Shi et al, 2018;Tu et al, 2018;Zhao et al, 2019).…”

“…Their works focus mostly on the ways artificial reservoirs change the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and in turn, exacerbate or less frequently absorb, water shortages Huang et al, 2016;Liu, Shi, & Sivakumar, 2020;Liu, Zhang, et al, 2020;Mehran et al, 2015;Shi et al, 2018;Tu et al, 2018;Zhao et al, 2019).…”

“…Most of the recent contributions have focused on exposing the social processes that intersect with the transformation of a drought from a meteorological event, into soil moisture drought (Cook et al, 2009 ; Deo et al, 2009 ; Kandakji et al, 2021 ; Satgé et al, 2017 ; Taufik et al, 2020 ; Yang et al, 2017 ; Yu et al, 2018 ), hydrological drought (Al‐Faraj & Tigkas, 2016 ; Jehanzaib, Shah, Kwon, & Kim, 2020 ; Jehanzaib, Shah, Yoo, & Kim, 2020 ; Liu et al, 2016 ; Somorowska & Łaszewski, 2017 ; Wada et al, 2013 ; Wan et al, 2017 ; Wanders & Wada, 2015 ; Wang, Duan, et al, 2020 ; Wang, Jiang, et al, 2020 ; Yang et al, 2020 ; Yuan et al, 2017 ), and ultimately, socioeconomic drought (Edalat & Stephen, 2019 ; Guo, Huang, Huang, Wang, Fang, et al, 2019 ; Guo, Huang, Huang, Wang, Wang, & Fang, 2019 ; Heidari et al, 2020 ; Huang et al, 2016 ; Liu, Shi, & Sivakumar, 2020 ; Liu, Zhang, et al, 2020 ; Mehran et al, 2015 ; Shi et al, 2018 ; Zhao et al, 2019 ). Across these studies, the social processes that engender or exacerbate drought propagation are usually proxied by the expansion of agriculture activities, population growth, urbanization, and industrialization, with agriculture seen as the most significant social driver across the various phases of drought propagation.…”

Applying of Marine Predators Algorithm Linked with Reservoir Simulation Model considering Sedimentation for Reservoir Operation

“…Nowadays, there are problems of water quantity and quality and con icts of water use. e cause of these issues is due to economic and social expansion and due to the ine cient management of water resources [1][2][3]. ese causes lead to a crisis in water supply.…”