Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, and Impact of Vaccination

Broutin, Hélène; Guégan, Jean‐François; Elguero, Éric; Simondon, François; Cazelles, Bernard

doi:10.1093/aje/kwi141

Cited by 59 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Several explanations have been suggested, including the occurrence of pertussis outbreaks, or the two-to five-year cycles of increasing and decreasing incidence. This periodicity is transient, differs from one country to another, and may result from an increase in the size of susceptible populations or changes in vaccination coverage [31]. Other possible causes are low vaccination coverage that hinders optimal vaccine effectiveness, waning vaccine-induced immunity in adolescent and adult populations who had received whole-cell or acellular vaccines without subsequent boosters, B. pertussis adaptation (antigenic divergence of circulating and vaccine strains), and the presence of asymptomatic transmitters, which potentially biases the estimation of vaccine effectiveness [2,4,5,[28][29][30][31][32][33][34].…”

Section: Incidence Of Pertussis Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other possible causes are low vaccination coverage that hinders optimal vaccine effectiveness, waning vaccine-induced immunity in adolescent and adult populations who had received whole-cell or acellular vaccines without subsequent boosters, B. pertussis adaptation (antigenic divergence of circulating and vaccine strains), and the presence of asymptomatic transmitters, which potentially biases the estimation of vaccine effectiveness [2,4,5,[28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. The resurgence of pertussis has also been attributed, at least in part, to increased routine use of real-time PCR and more sensitive serologic assays (real-time PCR was introduced in Algeria in 2012), and increased awareness of clinicians [2,4,5,[28][29][30][31][32].…”

Section: Incidence Of Pertussis Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pertussis in north-central and northwestern regions of Algeria

Benamrouche

Maamar

Lazri

et al. 2016

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Introduction: Pertussis outbreaks continue to occur in many countries despite high vaccination coverage. Under-diagnosed cases in adolescents and adults may result in increased transmission to infants, who are at risk of severe pertussis. Additional measures to protect both groups should be considered. Methodology: Nasopharyngeal samples and sera were collected from patients and household contacts with clinically suspected pertussis. Diagnoses were confirmed by culture, real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and serology. Bordetella pertussis isolates were characterized by antimicrobial sensitivity and fimbrial serotyping. Results: Of 392 participants, 134/248 patients (54%) and 66/144 contacts (45.8%) had confirmed pertussis infections. B. parapertussis was not detected. All B. pertussis isolates were sensitive to the antibiotics tested, and all expressed the Fim3, not the Fim2, fimbrial serotype. Most patients (81.2%) were <6 months (51.8% of whom were <3 months) of age; 77.6% were unvaccinated, and most positive contacts were mothers 20-40 years of age. Conclusions: Despite high vaccination coverage, pertussis is circulating in Algeria. Most infections occur in unvaccinated infants <6 months of age, with mothers as the main source of infection. An adolescent/adult booster should be considered. Adoption of sensitive and specific laboratory tests would improve pertussis diagnosis and surveillance.

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Section: Incidence Of Pertussis Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Incidence Of Pertussis Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pertussis in north-central and northwestern regions of Algeria

Benamrouche

Maamar

Lazri

et al. 2016

J Infect Dev Ctries

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…By contrast, the longer generation time of pertussis and important stochastic transients lead to longer period multi-annual cycles (Rohani et al 1999). Generally 3-4 year cycles are observed (Broutin et al 2005). The dynamics of the remaining infections are less well characterized in the literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

et al. 2009

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Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed countries. The degree to which this holds true across other acute immunizing childhood infections is not clear. Here, we identify seasonal transmission patterns using a unique long-term dataset with weekly incidence of six infections including measles. Data on age -incidence allow us to quantify the mean age of infection. Results indicate correspondence between dips in transmission and school holidays for some infections, but there are puzzling discrepancies, despite close correspondence between average age of infection and age of schooling. Theoretical predictions of the relationship between amplitude of seasonality and basic reproductive rate of infections that should result from term-time forcing are also not upheld. We conclude that where yearly trajectories of susceptible numbers are perturbed, e.g. via waning of immunity, seasonality is unlikely to be entirely driven by term-time forcing. For the three bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations.

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“…More recently, spectral techniques (see Technical Appendix for a brief description of these techniques) have been used to explore the periodicity of smallpox [10] and cholera [14]. Wavelet analysis has been used to study epidemiological time-series for measles [15], pertussis [16] and cholera [17]. Time series models based on the autoregressive integrated moving-average method (i.e., the Box-Jenkins models [18]) have been used to analyze syphilis and gonorrhea surveillance data [11,19] and childhood infectious diseases data [20].…”

Section: Methodology For Identifying Epidemic Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The transmission dynamics of syphilis and the CDC’s elimination plan

Breban¹,

Okano²,

Vardavas³

et al. 2007

Nature Precedings

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The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is currently attempting to eliminate syphilis in the United States (US); to ensure that their control strategies will be effective it is important to understand the transmission dynamics of syphilis. Epidemics of certain infectious diseases (e.g., influenza) can rise and fall with a well-defined periodicity; this cycling behavior is important because it can have significant implications for the design and effectiveness of control strategies. Here we discuss the methodology that has been used to identify epidemic cycles in longitudinal data sets, and the endogenous and exogenous mechanisms that generate cycling. We then examine the recently proposed hypothesis that syphilis epidemics cycle. This hypothesis was proposed based upon the results of a spectral analysis of a longitudinal data set that had been collected by the (CDC), and the analysis of a syphilis transmission model. We use spectral analysis to reanalyze the CDC's data set, as well as to analyze a longitudinal mortality data set provided by the CDC. We also use published transmission models to predict the expected dynamics of syphilis epidemics. In contrast to the previous findings we find that: (i) that neither of the CDC's data sets provide compelling evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle and (ii) published transmission models predict that syphilis epidemics should monotonically decrease (as a function of the treatment rate) rather than cycle. We explain the reasons why previous authors had proposed that syphilis epidemics cycle. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings regarding the transmission dynamics of syphilis for the CDC's elimination plan.

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Large-Scale Comparative Analysis of Pertussis Population Dynamics: Periodicity, Synchrony, and Impact of Vaccination

Cited by 59 publications

References 36 publications

Pertussis in north-central and northwestern regions of Algeria

Pertussis in north-central and northwestern regions of Algeria

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

The transmission dynamics of syphilis and the CDC’s elimination plan

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