Large Losses in Glacier Area and Water Availability by the End of Twenty-First Century under High Emission Scenario, Satluj Basin, Himalaya

Prasad, Veena; Kulkarni, Anil V.; Pradeep, Sai Pallavi; Pratibha, S.; Tawde, S. A.; Shirsat, Tejal; Arya, Archana; Orr, Andrew; Bannister, Daniel

doi:10.18520/cs/v116/i10/1721-1730

Cited by 29 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Initial values of area and depth for each glacier for each future time slice (2031 and 2081) were projected by Prasad et al (2019) for climate change outputs from the GFDL-CM3 climate model under RCP8.5 using the Accumulation Area Ratio and Elevation Line Altitude methods (Tawde et al 2017). The extrapolation of these variables to the other climate change scenarios is described in the supplementary material (SM1b).…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Momblanch

Beevers

Srinivasalu³

et al. 2020

Climatic Change

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Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater ecosystem services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns of fES production in a highly managed water resource system in northern India to inform the design and assessment of plausible adaptation measures to enhance fES production in the catchment under uncertain climate change. A water resource systems modelling approach is used to evaluate fES across the full range of plausible future scenarios, to identify the (worst-case) climate change scenarios triggering the greatest impacts and assess the capacity of adaptation to enhance fES. Results indicate that the current and future states of the fES depend on the spatial patterns of climate change and the impacts of infrastructure management on river flows. Natural zones deliver more regulating and cultural services than anthropized areas, although they are more climate-sensitive. The implementation of a plausible adaptation strategy only manages to slightly enhance fES in the system with respect to no adaptation. These results demonstrate that water resource systems models are powerful tools to capture complex system dependencies and inform the design of robust catchment management measures. They also highlight that mitigation and more ambitious adaptation strategies are needed to offset climate change impacts in highly climate-sensitive catchments.

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Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Momblanch

Beevers

Srinivasalu³

et al. 2020

Climatic Change

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“…We further evaluated the response of the glaciers in each of these zones during 1994 to 2016/17 using selected glaciers from each zone having area between 1.52 and 7.19 km 2 . The smaller (larger) glaciers showed higher (lower) area loss in all the sections of the UGB as reported from other basins of the Himalaya (Byers, 1970; Prasad et al ., 2019; Bhambri et al ., 2011; Mir et al ., 2014). The highest area change of glaciers are observed in section‐3 with an average of 9.26% over the past 23 years as compared to 6.57% for section‐2b and 4.84% for section‐2a.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topoclimatic zones and characteristics of the upper Ganga basin, Uttarakhand, India

Yadav

Thayyen

Jain

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The upper Ganga basin (UGB) constituting Bhagirathi and Alakananda basins has been considered as a single hydrological unit so far with comparable climate forcing. Here, we show three distinct “topoclimatic zones” of this basin having characteristically different temperature, precipitation, and orographic processes. The orographic discontinuity forced by a mountain ridge with an average elevation of 5,200 m a.s.l. is instrumental in the development of these topoclimatic zones. The northern region of the basin is identified as high elevation and high temperature zone (HE‐HT) with monsoon moisture deficit. This monsoon deficit region is characterized by higher land surface temperature lapse rate (LSTLR) during July and August (JA) derived from MODIS‐LST (11.00°C/km) as compared to much lower LSTLR of monsoon topoclimatic zone (5.78°C/km). The nival‐glacier regimes of the monsoon dominant and monsoon deficit regions constituted the third topoclimatic zone characterized by high elevation‐low temperature zone (HE‐LT). This zone has comparatively lower temperature lapse rate (5.26°C/km) than the immediately lower elevations. The coldest points identified in the basin are mostly placed in monsoon deficit regions with higher LSTLR. The 10–12°C isotherm in the monsoon deficit zone runs at 5,300 m a.s.l. as compared to 3,200 m a.s.l. in monsoon dominant zone. It is proposed that 80% of glacier area in the UGB is in the monsoon deficit zone that is regulated by the northern region orographic processes rather than southern slopes. Glacier change in the southern and northern zones show significant difference during the period of 1994–2016/2017, with significantly higher glacier area loss in the HE‐HT zone. The study highlights the importance of these topoclimatic considerations while evaluating the climate and hydrology of UGB.

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“…The SMM uses a temperature-index model to track snow and glacier accumulation and melt. Glaciers in each sub-catchment were considered as separate catchment nodes with area and average initial depth based on detailed studies (unpublished for the baseline, and published by Prasad et al (2019) for the climate change scenario). For the purposes of the mass balance, accumulation for glacier depth is considered as uniform.…”

Section: Weap Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…for this assessment can be justified on the basis that it represents an extreme future climate scenario with the highest temperature increase in the Himalayan region (Prasad et al, 2019).…”

Section: Climate Change Hydrological Impact Assessment With Delta Change Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation by Himalayan Water Resource System under a Sustainable Socioeconomic Pathway in a High-Emission Context

2021

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Climate change in the Indian Himalayan region is being manifested in loss of glaciers and altered patterns of monsoon rainfall. Simultaneously, rapid population growth together with economic development are increasing sectoral water demands and changing land use patterns.This study investigated the impact of this complex interplay on water resources in the Beas-Sutlej water resources system. The GFDL-CM3 model was used to describe RCP8.5 future meteorological conditions throughout the 21 st century. Population and land use changes were projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-1 (SSP1). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system was applied for assessing sectoral water demands. The results showed increasing runoff during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, due respectively to increased glaciers melting and more rainfall. It also emerged that irrigation water demand will decrease moderately in Punjab (8 -13%) and Haryana (1 -9%); however, the situation was reversed in Rajasthan where it increased by 14%. Adaptation strategies were proposed including increased water allocation to Rajasthan and converting lands to cultivating more staple crops in Punjab and Haryana.

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Large Losses in Glacier Area and Water Availability by the End of Twenty-First Century under High Emission Scenario, Satluj Basin, Himalaya

Cited by 29 publications

References 0 publications

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate

Topoclimatic zones and characteristics of the upper Ganga basin, Uttarakhand, India

Adaptation by Himalayan Water Resource System under a Sustainable Socioeconomic Pathway in a High-Emission Context

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