Large hydropower, decarbonisation and climate change uncertainty: Modelling power sector pathways for Ecuador

Carvajal, Pablo; Li, Francis G.N.; Soria, Rafael; Cronin, Jennifer; Anandarajah, Gabrial; Mulugetta, Yacob

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2018.12.008

Cited by 76 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Hydropower has been characterised in greater detail by representing: i) the existing and remaining potential at the basin level; ii) the specific technology type and the associated inter-annual power dispatch availability; and iii) the discrete investment characteristics of possible new hydropower projects. Further details on the structure and assumptions of the TIMES-EC model can be found in the Supplemental Material and in Carvajal et al, (2019).…”

Section: Critical Challenges For Hydropower Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Carvajal

2019

Climate Policy

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Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonisation efforts for Ecuador's power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimisation model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories. Key policy insights • Ecuador's hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region. • Given Ecuador's seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed. • Ecuador's NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

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Section: Critical Challenges For Hydropower Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Carvajal

2019

Climate Policy

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“…Furthermore, while cheap hydroelectricity generation is practically subsidizing the generation costs of ELECGALAPAGOS, there are several reasons to increase RE penetration. First, a recent study [118] demonstrated that runoff availability for hydropower could be affected by climate change, demanding an increase in thermal power generation in the mainland. Second, the growth rate of electricity demand could intensify stability issues.…”

Section: Results Of the Status Quo Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonizing the Galapagos Islands: Techno-Economic Perspectives for the Hybrid Renewable Mini-Grid Baltra–Santa Cruz

et al. 2020

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The fragile ecosystem of the Galapagos Islands is being affected by population growth, intensive tourism, the exploitation of local resources and the high consumption of imported fossil fuels. This unsustainable development model makes the provision of services such as electricity a challenge. This research investigates the hybrid renewable mini-grid Baltra-Santa Cruz, which represents 62% of the electricity generation mix of the archipelago. This study aims to support the Galapagos Zero Fossil Fuel Initiative and the Sustainable Development Goal 7 through the reduction in diesel consumption and electricity generation costs. To do so, HOMER Pro, a specialized hybrid renewable mini-grid planning tool, is used to perform several techno-economic assessments, focusing on different electricity demand scenarios. Therefore, multiple pathways are compared to identify the most reliable alternatives towards the progressive decarbonization of this hybrid system. The results indicate that installing 18.25 MWp of photovoltaic and 20.68 MWh of battery capacity could reduce the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from 32.06 to 18.95 USc/kWh, increasing the renewable energy (RE) share from 18% to 39%. Additionally, the successful application of energy efficiency measures would even reduce the LCOE to 17.10 USc/kWh. What is more, distributed energy is considered the most attractive way to involve islanders in the energy transition process. Finally, this paper offers a comprehensive business model proposal to achieve a resilient energy supply, based on a combination of auctions and energy community models, which demands high political will, reliable and innovative regulations and social awareness about energy use.Sustainability 2020, 12, 2282 4 of 47 and implement RE projects. In addition, the Ecuadorian Electricity Master Plan (PME) 2016-2025 [44] contains the list of priority projects to increase renewable electricity generation. Moreover, those possible new partners can propose additional RE initiatives thanks to the General Regulation of the LOSPEE. This regulation [43] is based on the targets of the National Plan of Development 2017Development -2021 which prioritize RE resources exploitation to reduce the dependency of fossil fuels. What is more, new companies interested in developing RE projects can receive an income-tax-exemption for five years [46].As regards distributed generation, the photovoltaic microgeneration to electricity self-sufficiency for final consumers of electricity regulation [47] and its amendment [48] promote the installation of PV systems up to 300 kWp per user in the residential sector and below 1000 kWp per user in the commercial and industrial sectors. This regulation is not limited to rooftop PV systems. A net-metering scheme is applied to compensate electricity costs. Thanks to this mechanism, consumers are billed for their "net" electricity use and the associated costs become credits for the following months if the electricity balance is positive for users. [47]. The National Rate Schedule for ...

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“…We find that 10% to 16% of existing fossil-fueled power plants in the region would need to be stranded to meet average carbon budgets from IPCC. Based on average investment costs reported by Soria et al (2016) and Carvajal et al (2019), the total investment cost of these portions would correspond roughly to $27 billion to $44 billion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Lecuyer¹,

González-Mahecha²,

Hallack³

et al. 2019

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Large hydropower, decarbonisation and climate change uncertainty: Modelling power sector pathways for Ecuador

Cited by 76 publications

References 52 publications

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Decarbonizing the Galapagos Islands: Techno-Economic Perspectives for the Hybrid Renewable Mini-Grid Baltra–Santa Cruz

Committed Emissions and the Risk of Stranded Assets from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

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