Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

Smith, William K.; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y.; Running, Steven W.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2879

Cited by 346 publications

(225 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Global monthly satellite-derived NPP data from 1982-2011 with 18 3 18 spatial resolution were obtained from Smith et al (2016). This NPP dataset was estimated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP algorithm driven by the third-generation GIMMS fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by the vegetation (FPAR3g) and leaf area index (LAI3g) (Zhu et al 2013), following Eq.…”

Section: A Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Climate Variables Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Earth system models (ESMs) are widely used to assess terrestrial carbon cycle responses to climate change across multiple temporal scales, but the large spread in the simulation results across ESMs has limited our ability to make inferences (Todd-Brown et al 2014;Todd-Brown et al 2013;Ahlström et al 2012). In recent years, some observation-based products of carbon flux have been reported and are valuable data to test terrestrial carbon cycle process in ESMs, including satellite-derived net primary production (NPP) Smith et al (2016) and inversion-based NBP (Chevallier et al 2014;Chevallier et al 2005;Chevallier et al 2010). Using these products enables the evaluation of the performance of ESMs in modeling the seasonal responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

et al. 2017

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Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982-2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March-May (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June-August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems. Both satellite-derived NPP and inversion-based NBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes in MAM due to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity of NPP decreased in JJA and SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM.

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Section: A Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Climate Variables Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

et al. 2017

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“…Some models show very large CO2 effects, while others indicate a smaller or saturating effect 30 (Kolby Smith et al, 2015). Because future predicted fossil carbon uptake is highly dependent on the strength of the simulated CO2 fertilization, any constraints on the long-term effect of elevated CO2 on ecosystems would be valuable in reducing uncertainty in coupled carbonclimate models (Friedlingstein et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem responses to elevated CO<sub>2</sub> using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California

Cawse‐Nicholson¹,

Fisher²,

Famiglietti³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. We present an exploratory study examining the use of airborne remote sensing 15 observations to detect ecological responses to elevated CO2 emissions from active volcanic systems. To evaluate these ecosystem responses, existing spectroscopic, thermal, and lidar data acquired over forest ecosystems on Mammoth Mountain volcano, California, were exploited, along with in situ measurements of volcanic soil CO2 fluxes. The elevated CO2 response was used to statistically model ecosystem structure, composition and function, 20 evaluated via data products including biomass, plant foliar traits and vegetation indices, and evapotranspiration (ET). Using regression ensemble models, we found that soil CO2 flux was a significant predictor for ecological variables, including Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI), canopy nitrogen, ET, and biomass. Additionally, the relationships between ecological variables changed with increasingly elevated (volcanically influenced) over non-25 volcanic "background" soil CO2 fluxes, suggesting a shift in coupling/decoupling among ecosystem structure, composition, and function synergies. For example, ET and biomass were significantly correlated for areas without elevated CO2 flux, but decoupled with elevated CO2 flux. This study demonstrates that a) volcanic systems show great potential as a means to study the properties of ecosystems and their responses to elevated CO2 emissions 30 and b) these ecosystem responses are measureable using a suite of airborne remotely sensed data.Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi

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“…As this may severely reduce the crops water requirements, it also affects the sustainability of croplands in arid and semi arid regions. Studies have identified a 15 greening in recent years that is in large parts related to the CFE (Zhu et al, 2016), however, it is very uncertain which role it may play for future crop yields, and it is even possible that it's benefits will be balanced completely by other factors such as nitrogen limitations (Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2015;Obermeier et al, 2016).In simulations with the MPI-ESM, the CFE is very pronounced and, to investigate the limits of food production without this 20 highly uncertain effect, we performed an additional set of simulations (IR26*,IR45*,RF45* and IR85*) that are identical to IR26,IR45,RF45 and IR85 but with the plant available CO 2 limited to the level of the year 2005, i.e. 380.00 ppmv.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…greening in recent years that is in large parts related to the CFE (Zhu et al, 2016), however, it is very uncertain which role it may play for future crop yields, and it is even possible that it's benefits will be balanced completely by other factors such as nitrogen limitations (Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2015;Obermeier et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

Vrese

Stacke

Hagemann

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximises the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. We show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures 5 can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO 2 fertilization effect, only few agricultural areas have to be abandoned, while increasing temperatures allow to expand croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO 2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated by an expansion in regions, previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO 2 fertilization, they may decrease when 10 green house gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even under the most optimistic assumptions. Food supply and climate changeThe question of how many people Earth may accommodate is anything but new, and increasing population sizes have been 15 connected to societal problems by as early as the 18th century (Cohen, 1995a; Van Den Bergh and Rietveld, 2004; UN, 2012).Different factors determine the maximum number of Earth's inhabitants, one of the most elemental being the availability of food. Here, suitable soils, energy and fresh water constitute the most essential factors determining food security, as the largest extent of our food supply originates from agriculture. The availability of these inputs, especially that of fresh water, depends on climatic conditions and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is a major challenge of climate research (Marotzke 20 et al., 2017). At the same time, agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate through the alteration of land-surface characteristics and the redistribution of water via irrigation.Numerous studies have investigated the planet's human carrying capacity as a function of the potential food supply (Cohen, 1995a, b; Van Den Bergh and Rietveld, 2004; Franck et al., 2011; UN, 2012;Sakschewski et al., 2014), the effect of climate 25 change on agriculture and water resources (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994;Jones and Thornton, 2003;Parry et al., 2004; Fis- cher et al., 2005;Elliott et al., 2013;Haddeland et al., 2013;Konzmann et al., 2013;Wada et al., 2013; Rosenzweig et al., 2014;Pugh et al., 2016) and the clima...

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Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

Cited by 346 publications

References 40 publications

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

Ecosystem responses to elevated CO<sub>2</sub> using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

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Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

Cited by 346 publications

References 40 publications

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

Ecosystem responses to elevated CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

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Product

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Ecosystem responses to elevated CO<sub>2</sub> using airborne remote sensing at Mammoth Mountain, California