Landslides in the Mailuu-Suu Valley, Kyrgyzstan—Hazards and Impacts

Abstract

Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation.As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested.

Tien Shan Geohazards Database: Earthquakes and landslides

“…As the time-factor is not considered for the landslide size-frequency statistics only qualitative comparisons can be made with earthquake statistics. Landslide occurrence is most frequent along the rim of the Fergana Basin (during some 'wet' years, several dozens or even more than 100 landslides can be activated), where also the relatively highest frequency of small earthquakes (M b 5, large a-value) can be observed; a similar high frequency is also observed for climatic events -which shows that those landslides near the Fergana Basin are more controlled by climatic factors (see also Havenith et al, 2006b). Rough estimates of ages of large rockslides (see also Strom, 2010) in the central Tien Shan show that these mass movements are very infrequent, but their relative 'weight' compared to the occurrence of small landslides in this region is highjust as for earthquakes in this region.…”

2D dynamic studies combined with the surface curvature analysis to predict Arias Intensity amplification

“…The landscape in the Mailuu-Suu River Valley is continuously changing owing to the high landslide activity. The total area affected by landslides increased more than five times in the period between 1962 and 2007 (Havenith et al 2006). The studies also indicate that the absolute number of large and very large landslides increases over time, while the number of small landslides decreases proportionally (Schlögel et al 2011).…”

“…1), the M = 7.6 Chatkal earthquake in 1946 (see event 2), the M = 7.4 Khait earthquake in 1949 (see event 3) and the M = 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake in 1992 (see event 4). The Mailuu-Suu River Valley is marked by a moderate to high level of seismic hazard -the last strong earthquake (Ms = 6.2) hit the region on May 15, 1992; it was located about 30 km SSE of the Mailuu-Suu town (Abdrakhmatov et al 2003;Havenith et al 2006).…”

“…This landslide with a volume of 1.5 × 10 6 m 3 brought significant economic losses and caused sensitive environmental damage (Vandenhove et al 2003). It is very likely that this seismic event was one of the main preparatory factors for the landslide failure (Havenith et al 2006).…”

ALOS/PALSAR InSAR Time-Series Analysis for Detecting Very Slow-Moving Landslides in Southern Kyrgyzstan

“…It also leads to the extensive damage of settlements and infrastructure and to the loss of human lives. For example, since 1993, more than 250 people have died due to catastrophic slope failures [33]. Satellite remote sensing and field-based investigations of the predisposing factors have revealed that the geological and structural settings play a significant role in the spatial distribution of the landslide occurrence [16,17].…”