Landslide Hazard Mapping in Son La Province, Vietnam Under Climate Change Scenarios for 2025 & 2050

Abstract

In recent years, landslides in mountainous provinces are increasing. Whenever the rainy season comes, landslides occur, causing casualties to people and damages to the infrastructure. Son La, a mountainous province in the North of Vietnam, has suffered significant damage from landslides. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to introduce an application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method with the integration of representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 4.5 to study landslides in Son La province, Vietnam. With the integration of the digital elevation model (DEM) and collected data into ArcGIS software, we obtained different factor maps: Slope map, Aspect map, Cleavage density map, River density map, Rainfall map, Lithology map, Fault density map, Vegetation cover map, Distance to roads. These were the important input parameters for the AHP method. The data collected from 2009 to the present and the research documents of the authors based on the field investigations in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were the basis for us to complete this article. The landslide risk maps with the integration of maximum daily rainfall from the climate change scenario for 2025 and 2050 were produced. The results revealed that the landslide risk in Son La province increases with time. The results from this research will assist local authorities in land use planning, disaster control, and achieving sustainable development goals.