Background
Immunization programs in low and middle income countries (LMICs) face
numerous challenges in getting life-saving vaccines to the people who need
them. As unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology has progressed in recent
years, potential use cases for UAVs have proliferated due to their ability
to traverse difficult terrains, reduce labor, and replace fleets of vehicles
that require costly maintenance.
Methods
Using a HERMES-generated simulation model, we performed sensitivity
analyses to assess the impact of using an unmanned aerial system (UAS) for
routine vaccine distribution under a range of circumstances reflecting
variations in geography, population, road conditions, and vaccine schedules.
We also identified the UAV payload and UAS costs necessary for a UAS to be
favorable over a traditional multi-tiered land transport system (TMLTS).
Results
Implementing the UAS in the baseline scenario improved vaccine
availability (96% versus 94%) and produced logistics cost
savings of $0.08 per dose administered as compared to the TMLTS. The
UAS maintained cost savings in all sensitivity analyses, ranging from
$0.05 to $0.21 per dose administered. The minimum UAV
payloads necessary to achieve cost savings over the TMLTS, for the various
vaccine schedules and UAS costs and lifetimes tested, were substantially
smaller (up to 0.40 L) than the currently assumed UAV payload of 1.5 L.
Similarly, the maximum UAS costs that could achieve savings over the TMLTS
were greater than the currently assumed costs under realistic flight
conditions.
Conclusion
Implementing a UAS could increase vaccine availability and decrease
costs in a wide range of settings and circumstances if the drones are used
frequently enough to overcome the capital costs of installing and
maintaining the system. Our computational model showed that major drivers of
costs savings from using UAS are road speed of traditional land vehicles,
the number of people needing to be vaccinated, and the distance that needs
to be traveled.