Landscape Analysis of Adult Florida Panther Habitat

Abstract

Historically occurring throughout the southeastern United States, the Florida panther is now restricted to less than 5% of its historic range in one breeding population located in southern Florida. Using radio-telemetry data from 87 prime-aged (≥3 years old) adult panthers (35 males and 52 females) during the period 2004 through 2013 (28,720 radio-locations), we analyzed the characteristics of the occupied area and used those attributes in a random forest model to develop a predictive distribution map for resident breeding panthers in southern Florida. Using 10-fold cross validation, the model was 87.5 % accurate in predicting presence or absence of panthers in the 16,678 km2 study area. Analysis of variable importance indicated that the amount of forests and forest edge, hydrology, and human population density were the most important factors determining presence or absence of panthers. Sensitivity analysis showed that the presence of human populations, roads, and agriculture (other than pasture) had strong negative effects on the probability of panther presence. Forest cover and forest edge had strong positive effects. The median model-predicted probability of presence for panther home ranges was 0.81 (0.82 for females and 0.74 for males). The model identified 5579 km2 of suitable breeding habitat remaining in southern Florida; 1399 km2 (25%) of this habitat is in non-protected private ownership. Because there is less panther habitat remaining than previously thought, we recommend that all remaining breeding habitat in south Florida should be maintained, and the current panther range should be expanded into south-central Florida. This model should be useful for evaluating the impacts of future development projects, in prioritizing areas for panther conservation, and in evaluating the potential impacts of sea-level rise and changes in hydrology.

Management Implications of Aquifer Fractures on Ecosystem and Habitat Suitability for Panthers in Southern Florida

“…The modeled data in that study determined that males and females, and females with and without kittens exhibited distinctly different movement patterns, but did not specify if those different movements were within the same habitat types, as suggested by Frakes et al [7], or in different habitat types. Only one female panther carrying a GPS collar gave birth during the van de Kerk et al [23] study.…”

“…Our results suggest that the model developed by Frakes et al [7], for use by conservation agencies attempting to identify and protect the most valuable panther habitat in south Florida, should be modified to consider the influence of fractures on identifying and protecting habitat for the federally endangered Florida panther. This conclusion is supported by the fact that their model showed that hydrology is one of the most important factors determining the presence of adult panthers.…”

“…Frakes et al [7] [7] also stated that 25% of that suitable habitat was in non-protected private ownership.…”

“…We reviewed literature of habitat studies for the Florida panther and evaluated the proximity of panther dens to previously mapped fractures in the matrix of the regional Floridan aquifer system underlying the remaining and original panther habitat throughout the southeastern US. Currently, Florida panthers are restricted to less than 5% of the historic range, as a single breeding population in south Florida [7] [8]. On March 11, 1967, the Florida panther was listed as an endangered species in the 32 Federal Register 4001 and on May 26, 2006, the Florida panther was recognized as one of the rarest large mammals in the US, in the 71 Federal Register 30156-01.…”

“…Only one female panther carrying a GPS collar gave birth during the van de Kerk et al [23] study. That study also compared the movements of those panthers during wet and dry seasons, defined by Frakes et al [7] as June through…”