Land Use, Transport, and Carbon Futures: The Impact of Spatial Form Strategies in Three UK Urban Regions

Abstract

Land-use and transport systems are an important determinant of carbon dioxide emissions from urban regions. It is often asserted that urban compaction is the spatial policy best able to constrain travel and emissions, but evidence supporting this assertion is limited, particularly with respect to the combined emission from transport and land use. Here, using land-use -transport interaction models, a residential dwelling type model, and transport and emission models, we forecast and assess carbon dioxide emissions from transport, dwellings, and commercial space to 2031 for a range of spatial strategies realistically investigated for three English regions of decreasing size (the Wider South East region, Tyne and Wear, and Cambridge). Our results reveal that compaction can reduce emission relative to other spatial scenarios but that the differences are small, about 5% between extremes, an order of magnitude less than emission growth observed over the trend period. Eorm has more influence for settlements where the pattern and proximity of employment, housing, and services can make cycling, walking, and public transport provision more feasible. We conclude that pricing and technology measures olfer better prospects for combating the growth in carbon emissions of urban regions, but that the type of urban form delivered is likely to be a significant determinant in the type of clean energy technology that can be implemented.

Urban spatial structure and environmental emissions: A survey of the literature and some empirical evidence for Italian NUTS 3 regions

“…However, high heterogeneity in terms of geographic and climatic factors makes it difficult to generalise (e.g., Mitchell, Hargreaves, Namdeo, & Echenique, 2011). For instance, Kahn (2000) found no significant differences in residential energy use between suburban areas and centres.…”

Investigating the interplay between transport, land use and the environment: a review of the literature

“…This is due to the fact that there is a clear link between land use and transport demand, and therefore, there is a need to issue planning guidance that aims to limit the traffic generation potential of new development (Sorrell 1992). For example, unlike greenfieldbased development in the UK, the land use policy has been reinforced in the last decade with a substantial increase in the share of dwellings built on brownfield land (from 54 % in 1996 to 72 % in 2006), and density of new dwellings-i.e., 25 to 41 dwellings per hectare over the same period (Mitchell et al 2011). In a study in the Netherlands, Grazi et al (2008) found that locations where density is 500 addresses per square kilometer higher, CO 2 emissions from transport are on average 15 % lower.…”

Urban Built Environments, Accessibility, and Travel Behavior in a Declining Urban Core: The Extreme Conditions of Disinvestment and Suburbanization in the Detroit Region

“…Other researchers that have focused on the relationship between urban densities and travel have found similar outcomes, albeit to varying degrees (Cao, Mokhtarian, & Handy, ; Mitchell, Hargreaves, Namdeo, & Echenique, ; Yang, French, Holt, & Zhang, ). For instance, Robert Cervero, who explored the relationship between urban environments and public transit use, argued that for every 10% increases in population and employment densities, transit ridership increased between 5% and 8% (Cervero, , p. 72).…”