Land-Use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model

Tímár, Levente; Kerr, Suzi

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2402553

Cited by 7 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…The empirical basis of the framework and its limited data needs lend transparency and robustness to the results. LURNZ's underlying datasets and processes have been validated (Anastasiadis et al, 2014), and its results are consistent with data and trends at the national scale, including New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Timar and Kerr, 2014).…”

Section: Scope Of Analysis and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 73%

Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector

Tímár¹

2016

Motu Working Paper

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I use simulations from the Land Use in Rural New Zealand model to consider mitigation for different classes of sheep-beef farms under climate policy. Farmers in the model can respond to carbon prices by abandoning or afforesting marginal land. In assessing carbon credits against liabilities, I consider only the income a farmer would be able to get with certainty without taking a carbon price risk. Farmers in intensive farm classes tend to bear the costs of emissions because their opportunity cost of exiting pastoral agriculture is high. The dominant land-use response in more extensive systems is land abandonment or afforestation, depending on location. Less profitable farm classes generally face higher average liabilities in relation to profits, both before and after the land-use response. Results indicate that farmers in North Island hill country may benefit most from afforestation opportunities. In this farm class, income from rewards could offset over half of farmers emission liabilities.

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Section: Scope Of Analysis and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 73%

Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector

Tímár¹

2016

Motu Working Paper

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“…The model's underlying datasets and processes have been validated (Anastasiadis et al, 2014), and its results are consistent with data and trends at the national scale, including New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Timar & Kerr, 2014 Costs and jobs LURNZ cannot model the total cost of a policy, its impact on employment or its impact on environmental factors. In the past, however, LURNZ studies have been linked to a CGE model to provide this information.…”

Section: Validatedmentioning

confidence: 78%

Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

Hendy

Ausseil

Bain³

et al. 2018

SSRN Journal

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This paper was prepared under Motu's Shaping New Zealand's Low-Emission Future programme, with funding support from the Ministry for Primary Industries and the Aotearoa Foundation. It was informed by the Motu Researcher Workshop on Land Use and Climate Change held in Wellington on 30 April 2018, and we gratefully acknowledge the contributions by presenters and other participants in that process. We also wish to acknowledge Susan Walker from Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, who reviewed parts of this paper. Disclaimer Contributions to the researcher workshop and this report were made in individuals' personal capacity and their inclusion in this paper does not imply any recommendation, consensus or endorsement by all participants, their affiliated organisations or the programme funders. While every effort has been made to ensure the information in this publication is accurate, the Ministry for Primary Industries does not accept any responsibility or liability for error of fact, omission, interpretation or opinion that may be present, nor for the consequences of any decisions based on this information.

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“…5 Although the data underlying the CCAV map was constructed in the 1970s and has not been updated to account for improvements in farming techniques or practices, we assume the map still provides a nationally consistent indicator of the relative suitability of land for agriculture. 6 Timar and Kerr (2014) show that there is a strong positive relationship between the TA-level average carrying capacity for sheep/beef and dairy land and the number of sheep, beef cattle and dairy cattle in the TA.…”

Section: Land Quality Mapsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Model Validation

et al. 2014

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Land is an important social and economic resource. Knowing the spatial distribution of land use and the expected location of future land-use change is important to inform decision makers. This paper documents and validates the baseline land-use maps and the algorithm for spatial land-use change incorporated in the Land Use in Rural New Zealand model (LURNZ). At the time of writing, LURNZ is the only national-level land-use model of New Zealand. While developed for New Zealand, the model provides an intuitive algorithm that would be straightforward to apply to different locations and at different spatial resolutions. LURNZ is based on a heuristic model of dynamic land-use optimisation with conversion costs. It allocates land-use changes to each pixel using a combination of pixel probabilities in a deterministic algorithm and calibration to nationallevel changes. We simulate out of sample and compare to observed data. As a result of the model construction, we underestimate the "churn" in land use. We demonstrate that the algorithm assigns changes in land use to pixels that are similar in quality to the pixels where land-use changes are observed to occur. We also show that there is a strong positive relationship between observed territorial-authority-level dairy changes and simulated changes in dairy area. JEL codesR52; R13; Q15; C52

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Land-Use Intensity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the LURNZ Model

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector

Does money grow on trees? Mitigation under climate policy in a heterogeneous sheep-beef sector

Land-Use Modelling in New Zealand: Current Practice and Future Needs

Land Use in Rural New Zealand: Spatial Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Model Validation

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