Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

McColl, Chris; Aggett, G. R.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.06.023

Cited by 110 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For example, Brun and Band (2000) used observed land use changes with modelled soil moisture and runoff to develop a simplified model suitable for decision-making in future urbanization activities. Hydrological models can be used in conjunction with land use change models of varying complexity to predict future changes and their impacts based on land suitability for change (e.g., Niehoff et al, 2002;McColl and Aggett, 2007).…”

Section: Uses Of Hydrological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

2012

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This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

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Section: Uses Of Hydrological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

2012

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“…Changes such as forest cover reduction through deforestation and conversion for agricultural purposes can alter a watershed's response to rainfall events, that often leads to increased volumes of surface runoff and greatly increase the incidence of flooding and sedimentation of receiving water bodies [1,2]. The detection of these changes is crucial in providing information as to what and where the changes have occurred and to analyzing these changes in order to formulate proper mitigation measures and rehabilitation strategies.…”

Section: Motivationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

2011

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Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a "rehabilitated" land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas) and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have OPEN ACCESSRemote Sens. 2011, 3 1068 demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

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“…Land-use change models, however, have been developed to predict future land-use conditions (Verburg et al, 1999). , Tang et al (2005), Tong and Liu (2006), Lin et al (2007) and McColl and Aggett (2007) couple landuse change and hydrological models. Niehoff et al (2002) uses the land-use change modeling kit (LUCK) in conjunction with a modified version of the physically based hydrological model WaSiM-ETH for flood prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lin et al (2007) tests the generalized watershed loading functions model using predicted land-use from the CLUE-S model (Verburg et al, 1999;Verburg et al, 2004). McColl and Aggett (2007) test the hydrological model HEC-HMS together with the land-use forecasting model What if?. In these studies landuse change models have shown to provide useful information that allows assessing the impact of future land-use on the hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Dams

Woldeamlak

Batelaan

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract. Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level in the basin, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% for scenario A1 and B2, respectively. Although these averages appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change.

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Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

Cited by 110 publications

References 48 publications

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications, Approaches and Challenges

Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

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