Land Use and Growth Impacts from Highway Capacity Increases

Abstract

This analysis examined the historical relationship between land use changes and the location of capacity increasing highway projects in the State of Oregon from 1970 to 1990. Aerial photography for 18 cities was used to delineate the extent of urban development in each time period. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to assemble the data. Using this data, a logit regression model tested the significance of geographic variables such as proximity to highway projects, land use zoning classification, city size, and other spatial characteristics. The analytical methods used in this study incorporated a set of commonly used techniques to assess highway impacts on urban development patterns. The results suggest that for the 18 selected cities, the spatial measures performed well in predicting the location of urban development from 1970 to 1990. In addition, the results of the logit regression model indicated that controlling for other location factors, urban development had not clustered along state high project corridors as was suspected. In troduction Similar to other states, Oregon has experienced significant rates of growth in and around its urbanized areas. The growth has not been limited to metropolitan areas, with many non-metropolitan cities having experienced new w•ban development resulting from population increases in the range of 4 to 9 percent annually between 1970 and 1997 (Center for Population Research and Census. 1998). In an attempt to manage growth impacts, Oregon instituted a statewide policy of urban growth boundaries (UGBs). These boundaries are used to contain and direct urban development and provide coordination between jurisdictions (Knaap and Nelson 1992). As urban areas grow in size, road and highway construction projects are used to facilitate vehicular travel patterns. In the period from 1975 to 1995, per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased by more than 50 percent within Oregon's Willamette Valley, with much of this increase being attributed to an increase in the number of single-occupancy conunuters (Gregor 1998). The challenge has been to accommodate local and regional travel demand with highway projects whi le not encouraging dispersed development, especially at the urban fringe. It has been shown that, while new development generates demand for new transportation facilities, increased accessibility from new highway facilities can also induce urban development (Moore and Thorsnes 1994). In this dynamic relationship between

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