Land cover transitions and changing climate conditions in the Polish Carpathians: Assessment and management implications

Abstract

Widespread, human‐induced land cover (LC) transitions in areas surrounding national parks and nature reserves, accompanied by changing climate conditions, can trigger serious consequences for these natural environments and their ecosystems. The aim of the study was to assess the direction and magnitude of transitions in LC in the Polish Carpathians since 1990 for determining the current status of land degradation neutrality and future degradation risk as well as to analyze concomitant changes in climate conditions to enable sustainable land management. The study area encompasses six national parks with the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization biosphere reserves, several dozen nature reserves, and landscape parks and is a key source of drinking water in Poland. We studied detailed changes in LC (13 classes). The Wilcoxon signed rank test indicated significant increases in built‐up areas (urban fabric and industrial/transport infrastructure), waters, dense forest cover, and herbaceous vegetation but a decrease in heterogeneous agricultural areas. On the basis of two new methods, we assessed the LC transitions for 20 mountain catchments and for the entire Polish Carpathians. Although we found a slight positive transition in LC for the entire Polish Carpathians, clearly negative transitions occurred in the five analyzed catchments, including those covering two national parks. These LC transitions are accompanied by changing climate conditions with significant increases in air temperature and precipitation. The ongoing intensive urbanization in the studied mountain region, which is accompanied by significant regional warming, implies the need to apply sustainable management practices that will avoid or reduce degradation in the catchments involved.

Sensitivity of mountain catchments to global warming: a case study of the San Basin, Poland

“…Indeed, the identified upward trends in Ta are common and highly significant, while their annual strength (0.20-0.31°C per decade, P < 0.005) is well in line with other studies in the Carpathian area (e.g. Spinoni et al, 2015;Werners et al, 2016;Kędra and Szczepanek, 2019). Interestingly, the identified increase in Ta is not evenly distributed throughout the year; the strongest trends concern July and August (on average, 0.38°C and 0.33°C per decade, respectively) as well as June (0.27°C per decade, on average), weaker ones occur in April and May.…”

“…Moreover, focusing on the same area and gridded data from CARPATCLIM Database of the European Commission (Joint Research Centre, www.carpa tclim -eu. org), Kędra and Szczepanek (2019) found a consistent increase in annual mean Ta, higher in 1981Ta, higher in -2010Ta, higher in than in 1961Ta, higher in -2010, as well as a significant increase in P (76 mm per decade) in 1981-2010.…”

“…Because persistent periods of abnormal warm weather are likely to increase in Europe (EEA, 2019) as well as in the study area (Kędra, 2020), groundwater discharge, which maintains base flow, will be an important source of water that shapes Q during drought. In this context, the ongoing urbanisation process in the upper San catchments, with a significant increase in built-up areas since 1990 (Kędra and Szczepanek, 2019), seems unfavourable, because sealing the surface disrupts water circulation, reduces infiltration, groundwater recharge and the resulting base flow and accelerates overland runoff (Allan and Castillo, 2007). In the perspective of progressive warming, the sustainable use of land and water resources and their coordinated development appear essential.…”

“…On the contrary, focusing on the same area, Wypych et al (2018) analysed the variability of Ta and P for five altitudinal zones based on gridded data; in the years 1970–2010 P did not show any significant trend, while the trend intensity in areal mean temperature increased with altitude, from 0.49 to 0.57°C per decade. Moreover, focusing on the same area and gridded data from CARPATCLIM Database of the European Commission (Joint Research Centre, http://www.carpatclim-eu.org), Kędra and Szczepanek (2019) found a consistent increase in annual mean Ta, higher in 1981–2010 than in 1961–2010 (0.35 and 0.29°C per decade, respectively), as well as a significant increase in P (76 mm per decade) in 1981–2010.…”

Effects of plantation age and precipitation gradient on soil carbon and nitrogen changes following afforestation in the Chinese Loess Plateau

“…Land degradation has long been a severe environmental issue in arid and semiarid regions of the world (Jamal, Javed, & Khanday, ; Kędra & Szczepanek, ). Human‐aided afforestation of degraded or cultivated land is an effective measure to control soil erosion, increase soil carbon sequestration, and recover ecosystems (Deng, Liu, & Shangguan, ; García‐Díaz et al, ).…”